Should I start Nico Collins or Luther Burden III in Week 9?

The market-based projections

Nico Collins's market-based projection is 15.0 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 7 market sources. That is the 17th highest figure of the 213 players with a market-based projection.

Luther Burden III's market-based projection is 14.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 9 market sources. That is the 19th highest figure of the 213 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Nico Collins, and the board ranks him 9th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Luther Burden III, and the board ranks him 11th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 39.

This season so far

Through Week 7, Nico Collins has been on the field for 71 percent of HOU snaps, drawn 22 percent of the targets and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 8 of the offence's 34 third down targets, had 0 of its 12 chances inside the five and seen 4 of its 26 two minute targets.

His 35 targets have averaged 12.5 air yards.

In Week 5 against TEN he caught 5 of 7 targets for 56 yards and did not score.

In Week 6 against JAX he carried 1 time for 5 yards, caught 3 of 5 targets for 74 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against NYG he caught 2 of 5 targets for 6 yards and did not score.

Through Week 8, Luther Burden III has been on the field for 61 percent of CHI snaps, drawn 20 percent of the targets and had 14 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 3 of the offence's 19 third down targets, had 1 of its 9 chances inside the five and seen 1 of its 6 two minute targets.

His 13 targets have averaged 6.2 air yards.

In Week 7 against NE he carried 1 time for 7 yards, caught 4 of 4 targets for 130 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 8 against SEA he caught 7 of 9 targets for 56 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Nico Collins played 15 games and scored 226.2 PPR points, 15.1 a game, finishing WR8.

He caught 71 of 120 targets for 1117 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 16 red zone targets.

That came to 8.0 targets a game, a 59 percent catch rate and 15.7 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 77 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Luther Burden III played 15 games and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets.

That came to 4.0 targets a game, a 78 percent catch rate and 13.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 15 games that season.

Head to head

In 2025 Nico Collins scored 15.1 PPR points a game and Luther Burden III 8.5, 6.6 a game between them.

Nico Collins finished WR8 that year and Luther Burden III WR48.

Nico Collins had 60 more targets than Luther Burden III, 120 to 60.

Nico Collins had 465 more receiving yards than Luther Burden III, 1117 to 652.

This season Nico Collins holds the bigger snap share, 71 percent against 61 percent.

This season Nico Collins holds the bigger target share, 22 percent against 20 percent.

Byes and availability

Nico Collins is off in Week 8 and Luther Burden III in Week 10, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.1 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.