Should I start Luther Burden III or Tetairoa McMillan in Week 9?

The market-based projections

Luther Burden III's market-based projection is 14.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 9 market sources. That is the 19th highest figure of the 213 players with a market-based projection.

Tetairoa McMillan's market-based projection is 14.6 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 12 market sources. That is the 23rd highest figure of the 213 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Luther Burden III, and the board ranks him 11th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 39.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Tetairoa McMillan, and the board ranks him 13th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 8

Through Week 8, Luther Burden III has been on the field for 61 percent of CHI snaps, drawn 20 percent of the targets and had 14 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 3 of the offence's 19 third down targets, had 1 of its 9 chances inside the five and seen 1 of its 6 two minute targets.

His 13 targets have averaged 6.2 air yards.

In Week 7 against NE he carried 1 time for 7 yards, caught 4 of 4 targets for 130 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 8 against SEA he caught 7 of 9 targets for 56 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Through Week 8, Tetairoa McMillan has been on the field for 83 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 26 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 12 of the offence's 53 third down targets, had 3 of its 13 chances inside the five and seen 9 of its 34 two minute targets.

His 65 targets have averaged 10.7 air yards.

In Week 6 against PHI he caught 6 of 9 targets for 86 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against TB he caught 4 of 6 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against GB he caught 6 of 11 targets for 58 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Luther Burden III played 15 games and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets.

That came to 4.0 targets a game, a 78 percent catch rate and 13.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Tetairoa McMillan played 17 games and scored 211.4 PPR points, 12.4 a game, finishing WR16.

He caught 70 of 122 targets for 1014 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 15 red zone targets.

That came to 7.2 targets a game, a 57 percent catch rate and 15 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 87 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Tetairoa McMillan was available for 2 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Tetairoa McMillan scored 12.4 PPR points a game and Luther Burden III 8.5, 3.9 a game between them.

Luther Burden III finished WR48 that year and Tetairoa McMillan WR16.

Tetairoa McMillan had 62 more targets than Luther Burden III, 122 to 60.

Tetairoa McMillan had 362 more receiving yards than Luther Burden III, 1014 to 652.

This season Tetairoa McMillan holds the bigger snap share, 83 percent against 61 percent.

This season Tetairoa McMillan holds the bigger target share, 26 percent against 20 percent.

Byes and availability

Luther Burden III is off in Week 10 and Tetairoa McMillan in Week 5, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.3 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.