Fantasy basketball injury-risk stars 2026-27: games played for the top 60 and who to discount

Per-game ranks do not count missed games

The Parlae board ranks every player per game. That is the right way to measure how good a player is on the nights he plays. It says nothing about how many nights that will be.

Two neighbors on the board show the gap. Joel Embiid is #11 at 44.5 FP/G and played 38 of 82 games last season. Donovan Mitchell is #12 at 44.3 FP/G and played 70. Multiply it out and Embiid produced about 1,691 fantasy points over the season to Mitchell's 3,101. Same per-game tier, very different season.

So this guide uses the one durability measure the data supports: games played across the last three 82-game seasons, for the top 60 players on the points board. We describe missed games as numbers only. The data does not say why a player missed a game, so neither do we.

The 12 lowest three-season totals in the top 60

Source: games played from Sleeper's 2025-26, 2024-25 and 2023-24 NBA season totals; age on opening night (Oct 20 2026) and current injury designation from Sleeper's player file, Oct 12 2026; rank and round from the Parlae points board.

Read the empty seasons before you read the totals. Five of the 12, Flagg, Kevin Porter, Sarr, Clingan and Castle, are low partly because a season has no NBA games on file. Flagg played 70 of 82 in his only season on file. Castle played 149 of a possible 164 across two, and Clingan 144 of 164. Those are not durability problems the data can show.

The other seven have all three seasons on file and played between 79 and 151 of a possible 246 games. Jimmy Butler and Paul George sit just outside the table at 152 each.

The early-round risks

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia (#11, round 1.11). 38 games last season, 19 the season before, 39 before that: 96 of 246. He is 32. The bust page flags both his games and his age. His current DTD Rest tag is a preseason rest designation, not an injury.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Miami (#5, round 1.05). Not in the table at 176, but he played 36 games last season after 67 and 73. The bust page flags the 36. Taking him fifth assumes the 67 and 73 come back, not the 36.

Anthony Davis, Washington (#13, round 2.01). 75 games, then 51, then 20 last season. The total went down every year. He is 33, and the bust page flags games and age.

Lauri Markkanen, Utah (#23, round 2.11). 42, 47 and 55: he has not reached 56 games in any of the three seasons. He is listed GTD (neck) on the current injury report. In categories leagues the per-game case is strong, with a 9-cat rank of #8, which makes the games question the whole decision.

Kawhi Leonard, Toronto (#9, round 1.09). 65 games last season after 37 and 68, for 170. His bust flag is age 35, not games. His current designation reads DTD Not Injury Related.

The middle-round names

• Ja Morant, Portland (#45): 20, 50 and 9 games, for 79 of 246. Lowest of anyone in the top 60 with three seasons on file.
• Kevin Porter, Milwaukee (#30): 38 games last season after 75. The bust page flags the games and a one-season FP/G jump from 21.8 to 39.9.
• Stephen Curry, Golden State (#33): 43 games last season after 70 and 74. He is 38.
• Jimmy Butler, Golden State (#42): 38, 55 and 59, for 152. He is 37 and listed Out (knee) on the current injury report.
• Paul George, Boston (#60): 37, 41 and 74, for 152. He is 36.
• Tyler Herro, Milwaukee (#59): 33 last season, 77 the season before, 41 before that.
• LaMelo Ball, Minnesota (#39): 22, then 47, then 72 last season. The direction is up. His GTD Rest tag is not an injury.

Rest is not an injury

Fifteen of the top 60 carry a DTD Rest or GTD Rest designation on Sleeper today, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards and Bam Adebayo. Two more, Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant, are listed DTD Not Injury Related. Teams in general rest players in the preseason. None of these tags says a player is hurt.

The cleanest proof is at the other end of the list. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is listed GTD Rest and played 78, 82 and 81 games, for 241 of a possible 246, the highest total in the top 60. Derrick White is next at 226, then James Harden and Adebayo at 221 each. Harden is 37 and has an age flag on the bust page, but he played 70, 79 and 72.

What to do on draft night

1. Discount, do not delete. A per-game rank assumes the games. In points leagues, think in FP/G times games, as in the Embiid and Mitchell example. Between two players a rank or two apart, take the one with the cleaner three-year line.
2. Do not stack the table. If you take one player from the 12 above, lean toward durable names later. Harden (#18), Adebayo (#24), White (#47) and Alexander-Walker (#55) all played 221 or more of 246.
3. Plan for the empty nights. Missed games are where a bench spot and the waiver wire earn their keep. Our streaming strategy guide covers how to fill them.
4. Check the injury report the morning of your draft. Watch for body parts, not Rest tags. In the top 60 today: Markkanen listed GTD (neck), Butler listed Out (knee), Michael Porter listed GTD (wrist) and Brandon Ingram listed Out (heel). De'Aaron Fox is listed GTD Undisclosed.