Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr. for Chase Brown?

Not on these numbers alone. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games) and Chase Brown 177 (16.1 a game over 11 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Chase Brown over Aaron Jones Sr. Aaron Jones Sr. is listed questionable.

Start Aaron Jones Sr. or Chase Brown? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 3:21 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Chase Brown over Aaron Jones Sr.

Start

Chase Brown

RB · CIN · at BAL

Market projects: 17.1; recent weeks avg
BAL D vs RB: 18.5; 6th fewest to RBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 68 of 100 at RB
Snap share: 70%; Through Week 5
Target share: 15%; Through Week 5

Sit

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MIN · vs IND · Questionable

Market projects: 16.4; recent weeks avg
IND D vs RB: 23.9; 6th most to RBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 69 of 100 at RB

Should I drop Chase Brown for Aaron Jones Sr.?

Not on these numbers alone. Chase Brown projects 177 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 11 games) and Aaron Jones Sr. 182 (16.5 a game over 11 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Chase Brown over Aaron Jones Sr. Aaron Jones Sr. is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Chase Brown over Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Chase Brown at 17.1 points and Aaron Jones Sr. at 16.4, a gap of 0.6. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Chase Brown this week yet, so his 17.1 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (16.5 and 17.7); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Aaron Jones Sr. this week yet, so his 16.4 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (16.6 and 16.2); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Chase Brown at ADP 16 and Aaron Jones Sr. at 110.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Chase Brown yet. His market-based projections were 16.5 and 17.7 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 17.1, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Chase Brown is 0.7 touchdowns (9 market sources).

No Week 7 player market is posted for Aaron Jones Sr. yet. His market-based projections were 16.7 and 16.2 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 16.4, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Aaron Jones Sr. is 0.8 touchdowns (8 market sources).

That puts Chase Brown 0.6 points ahead of Aaron Jones Sr. on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Chase Brown and CIN visit BAL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

BAL allowed 18.5 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 6th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 80 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against BAL and caught passes for 14 more yards.

Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 23.9 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 6th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 96 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against IND and caught passes for 45 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Chase Brown is not on the injury report.

Aaron Jones Sr. is listed as questionable with a leg injury.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 5, Chase Brown played 70 percent of CIN snaps, took 65 percent of the carries, drew 15 percent of the targets and had 29 percent of the red zone chances.

Chase Brown, Week 2 against HOU: 42 of 60 snaps, 20 carries for 80 yards, 5 targets and 3 catches for 2 yards.

Chase Brown, Week 3 against PIT: 40 of 57 snaps, 13 carries for 61 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 8 yards.

Chase Brown, Week 4 against JAX: 60 of 76 snaps, 9 carries for 10 yards, 11 targets and 11 catches for 71 yards.

Chase Brown, Week 5 against MIA: 39 of 65 snaps, 13 carries for 39 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 21 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Chase Brown played 17 games for CIN and scored 282.6 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing RB7.

He ran 232 times for 1019 yards and 6 touchdowns, and caught 69 of 88 targets for 437 yards.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 35 of 54 snaps, 18 carries for 53 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 16 of 2025 against NYG: 39 of 61 snaps, 21 carries for 85 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 8 yards, 11.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 15 of 2025 against DAL: 32 of 55 snaps, 12 carries for 34 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 9.5 PPR points.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Chase Brown for Aaron Jones Sr.?
Not on these numbers alone. Chase Brown projects 177 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 11 games) and Aaron Jones Sr. 182 (16.5 a game over 11 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Chase Brown over Aaron Jones Sr. Aaron Jones Sr. is listed questionable.
Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr. for Chase Brown?
Not on these numbers alone. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games) and Chase Brown 177 (16.1 a game over 11 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Chase Brown over Aaron Jones Sr. Aaron Jones Sr. is listed questionable.