Start Kyler Murray or Aaron Rodgers? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 2:46 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Paris, set your lineup before then.

Start Kyler Murray over Aaron Rodgers

Start

Kyler Murray

QB · MIN · vs IND

Market projects: 16.6; fantasy pts
IND D vs QB: 18.8; 11th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 71 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 80%; Through Week 5

Sit

Aaron Rodgers

QB · PIT · at NO

Market projects: 15.3; fantasy pts
NO D vs QB: 18.5; 14th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 74 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 99%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Aaron Rodgers for Kyler Murray?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Kyler Murray projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Aaron Rodgers 145 (14.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Kyler Murray over Aaron Rodgers, 16.6 to 15.4 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Kyler Murray over Aaron Rodgers in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Kyler Murray at 16.6 points and Aaron Rodgers at 15.3, a gap of 1.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Kyler Murray's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Kyler Murray at ADP 139 and Aaron Rodgers at 231.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.6 fantasy points for Kyler Murray, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Kyler Murray is 204 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (10, 11 and 9 market sources).

Player markets imply 15.4 fantasy points for Aaron Rodgers, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Aaron Rodgers is 235 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing yards and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (13, 14, 6 and 13 market sources).

That puts Kyler Murray 1.3 points ahead of Aaron Rodgers on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Kyler Murray and MIN host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 18.8 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 11th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 240 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game against IND, with 0.3 interceptions a game.

Aaron Rodgers and PIT visit NO on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

NO allowed 18.5 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 14th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 256 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game against NO, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Kyler Murray has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Kyler Murray is not on the injury report.

Aaron Rodgers is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 5, Kyler Murray played 80 percent of MIN snaps, dropped back 122 times and threw an average of 6.4 air yards per attempt.

Kyler Murray, Week 1 against GB: 11 of 65 snaps, 3 of 5 passes for 18 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 3 against TB: 59 of 59 snaps, 15 of 29 passes for 168 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 4 against MIA: 78 of 78 snaps, 27 of 37 passes for 247 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 21 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 5 against NO: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 29 passes for 229 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 54 yards.

Through Week 6, Aaron Rodgers played 99 percent of PIT snaps, dropped back 252 times and threw an average of 7.7 air yards per attempt.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 3 against CIN: 62 of 62 snaps, 19 of 33 passes for 292 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 12 yards.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 4 against CLE: 72 of 72 snaps, 22 of 40 passes for 299 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 5 against IND: 58 of 60 snaps, 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 6 yards.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 6 against TB: 79 of 79 snaps, 33 of 47 passes for 253 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Kyler Murray played 5 games for ARI and scored 80.8 PPR points, 16.2 a game, finishing QB38.

He completed 110 of 161 passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Aaron Rodgers played 16 games for PIT and scored 234.1 PPR points, 14.6 a game, finishing QB18.

He completed 327 of 498 passes for 3322 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 61 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Aaron Rodgers for Kyler Murray?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Kyler Murray projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Aaron Rodgers 145 (14.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Kyler Murray over Aaron Rodgers, 16.6 to 15.4 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Kyler Murray for Aaron Rodgers?
No. Keep Kyler Murray: he projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Aaron Rodgers 145 (14.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Kyler Murray over Aaron Rodgers, 16.6 to 15.4 projected PPR points.