Start Kyler Murray or Deshaun Watson? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 3:51 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Kyler Murray over Deshaun Watson

Start

Kyler Murray

QB · MIN · vs IND

Market projects: 16.5; fantasy pts
IND D vs QB: 18.8; 11th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 79 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 80%; Through Week 5

Sit

Deshaun Watson

QB · CLE · at TEN

Market projects: 16.5; fantasy pts
TEN D vs QB: 15.6; 12th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 68 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Deshaun Watson for Kyler Murray?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Kyler Murray projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Deshaun Watson 161 (16.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Kyler Murray over Deshaun Watson, 16.5 to 16.5 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Kyler Murray over Deshaun Watson in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Kyler Murray at 16.5 points and Deshaun Watson at 16.5, a gap of 0.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.5 fantasy points for Kyler Murray, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Kyler Murray is 204 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (11, 12 and 10 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.5 fantasy points for Deshaun Watson, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Deshaun Watson is 205 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (5, 5 and 8 market sources).

That puts Kyler Murray 0.0 points ahead of Deshaun Watson on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Kyler Murray and MIN host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 18.8 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 11th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 240 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game against IND, with 0.3 interceptions a game.

Deshaun Watson and CLE visit TEN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TEN allowed 15.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 12th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 235 yards and a touchdown a game against TEN, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Kyler Murray has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Kyler Murray is not on the injury report.

Deshaun Watson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 5, Kyler Murray played 80 percent of MIN snaps, dropped back 122 times and threw an average of 6.4 air yards per attempt.

Kyler Murray, Week 1 against GB: 11 of 65 snaps, 3 of 5 passes for 18 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 3 against TB: 59 of 59 snaps, 15 of 29 passes for 168 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 4 against MIA: 78 of 78 snaps, 27 of 37 passes for 247 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 21 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 5 against NO: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 29 passes for 229 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 54 yards.

Through Week 6, Deshaun Watson played 100 percent of CLE snaps, dropped back 220 times and threw an average of 7.3 air yards per attempt.

Deshaun Watson, Week 3 against CAR: 69 of 70 snaps, 16 of 30 passes for 144 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 9 carries for 47 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 4 against PIT: 64 of 64 snaps, 24 of 33 passes for 268 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 24 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 5 against NYJ: 68 of 68 snaps, 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 40 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 6 against BAL: 62 of 62 snaps, 16 of 26 passes for 164 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 29 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Kyler Murray played 5 games for ARI and scored 80.8 PPR points, 16.2 a game, finishing QB38.

He completed 110 of 161 passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Deshaun Watson for Kyler Murray?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Kyler Murray projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Deshaun Watson 161 (16.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Kyler Murray over Deshaun Watson, 16.5 to 16.5 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Kyler Murray for Deshaun Watson?
No. Keep Kyler Murray: he projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Deshaun Watson 161 (16.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Kyler Murray over Deshaun Watson, 16.5 to 16.5 projected PPR points.