Start A.J. Brown or Josh Downs? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 5:41 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start A.J. Brown over Josh Downs

Start

A.J. Brown

WR · NE · at MIA

Market projects: 13.7; recent weeks avg
MIA D vs WR: 23.8; 3rd fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 70 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 68%; Through Week 7
Target share: 22%; Through Week 7

Sit

Josh Downs

WR · IND · at JAX

Market projects: 11.7; recent weeks avg
JAX D vs WR: 38.0; 4th most to WRs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 74 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 82%; Through Week 7
Target share: 20%; Through Week 7

Should I drop A.J. Brown for Josh Downs?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Josh Downs projects 105 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.7 a game over 9 games), A.J. Brown 85 (9.4 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts A.J. Brown over Josh Downs. So make the move after his Week 8 game.

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Our Week 8 call

Start A.J. Brown over Josh Downs in Week 8.

Market-based projections have A.J. Brown at 13.7 points and Josh Downs at 11.7, a gap of 2.0. No player market is posted for A.J. Brown this week yet, so his 13.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6 and 7 (11.8 and 15.5); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Josh Downs this week yet, so his 11.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 (12.0, 12.3 and 10.9); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take A.J. Brown at ADP 17 and Josh Downs at 96.

What the market projects

No Week 8 player market is posted for A.J. Brown yet. His market-based projections were 11.8 and 15.5 points in Weeks 6 and 7, an average of 13.7, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

The market-based projection for A.J. Brown is 0-1 touchdowns (7 market sources).

No Week 8 player market is posted for Josh Downs yet. His market-based projections were 12.0, 12.3 and 10.9 points in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, an average of 11.7, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

That puts A.J. Brown 2.0 points ahead of Josh Downs on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

A.J. Brown and NE visit MIA on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

MIA allowed 23.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 116 yards and 0-1 touchdowns a game against MIA.

Josh Downs and IND visit JAX on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

JAX allowed 38.0 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 4th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 210 yards and 0-1 touchdowns a game against JAX.

By points allowed to the position, Josh Downs has the softer matchup.

Injury status

A.J. Brown is not on the injury report.

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, A.J. Brown played 68 percent of NE snaps, drew 22 percent of the targets, earned 35 percent of the air yards and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

A.J. Brown, Week 1 against SEA: 31 of 71 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards.

A.J. Brown, Week 6 against NYJ: 52 of 68 snaps, 10 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards.

A.J. Brown, Week 7 against CHI: 49 of 54 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 48 yards.

Through Week 7, Josh Downs played 82 percent of IND snaps, drew 20 percent of the targets, earned 26 percent of the air yards and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 4 against WAS: 51 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 5 against PIT: 60 of 71 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 47 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 6 against TEN: 71 of 83 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 7 against MIN: 52 of 58 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, A.J. Brown played 15 games for PHI and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.

He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 735 air yards.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop A.J. Brown for Josh Downs?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Josh Downs projects 105 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.7 a game over 9 games), A.J. Brown 85 (9.4 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts A.J. Brown over Josh Downs. So make the move after his Week 8 game.
Should I drop Josh Downs for A.J. Brown?
No. Keep Josh Downs: he projects 105 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.7 a game over 9 games), A.J. Brown 85 (9.4 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts A.J. Brown over Josh Downs.

Should I drop Josh Downs?