Start Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield? Week 8

Updated Oct 28, 1:37 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Latest

Oct 22, 4:48 PM ET: Barring setbacks, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield expected to start vs. Panthers (ESPN)

Start Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield

Start

Joe Burrow

QB · CIN · vs TEN

Market projects: 22.9; fantasy pts
TEN D vs QB: 16.1; 11th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 69 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 99%; Through Week 7

Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · vs ATL

Market projects: 16.4; fantasy pts
ATL D vs QB: 18.0; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 28 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 96%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Joe Burrow?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Joe Burrow projects 171 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.1 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield, 22.9 to 16.4 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Joe Burrow at 22.9 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.4, a gap of 6.5. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Joe Burrow at ADP 55 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.4 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 218 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (3, 3 and 6 market sources).

Player markets imply 22.9 fantasy points for Joe Burrow, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Joe Burrow is 264 passing yards, 2-3 passing touchdowns and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (7, 8 and 11 market sources).

That puts Joe Burrow 6.5 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 8 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ATL allowed 18.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 271 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against ATL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

Joe Burrow and CIN host TEN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TEN allowed 16.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 246 yards and 0.9 touchdowns a game against TEN, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Joe Burrow is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 129 times and threw an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Through Week 7, Joe Burrow played 99 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 236 times and threw an average of 7.2 air yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow, Week 3 against PIT: 57 of 57 snaps, 28 of 37 passes for 282 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 13 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 4 against JAX: 76 of 76 snaps, 39 of 54 passes for 428 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 6 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 5 against MIA: 65 of 65 snaps, 23 of 32 passes for 190 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 7 against BAL: 50 of 53 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Joe Burrow?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Joe Burrow projects 171 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.1 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield, 22.9 to 16.4 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Joe Burrow for Baker Mayfield?
No. Keep Joe Burrow: he projects 171 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.1 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield, 22.9 to 16.4 projected PPR points.