Should I drop Malik Willis for Baker Mayfield?

Not on these numbers alone. Malik Willis projects 146 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (14.6 a game over 10 games) and Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis, 16.1 to 15.5 projected PPR points.

Start Baker Mayfield or Malik Willis? Week 8

Updated Oct 28, 6:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Latest

Oct 22, 4:48 PM ET: Barring setbacks, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield expected to start vs. Panthers (ESPN)

Start Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · vs ATL

Market projects: 16.1; fantasy pts
ATL D vs QB: 18.0; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 30 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 96%; Through Week 7

Sit

Malik Willis

QB · MIA · vs NE

Market projects: 15.5; fantasy pts
NE D vs QB: 15.7; 9th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 78 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Malik Willis?

Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games) and Malik Willis 146 (14.6 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis, 16.1 to 15.5 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.1 points and Malik Willis at 15.5, a gap of 0.6. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Baker Mayfield's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Baker Mayfield at ADP 133 and Malik Willis at 197.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.1 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (13, 13 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 15.5 fantasy points for Malik Willis, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Malik Willis is 185 passing yards, 35 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns (8, 10 and 13 market sources).

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.6 points ahead of Malik Willis on the market projections.

Week 8 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ATL allowed 18.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 271 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against ATL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

Malik Willis and MIA host NE on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

NE allowed 15.7 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 9th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 239 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against NE, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Malik Willis is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 129 times and threw an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Through Week 7, Malik Willis played 100 percent of MIA snaps, dropped back 188 times and threw an average of 9.7 air yards per attempt.

Malik Willis, Week 3 against KC: 73 of 73 snaps, 20 of 36 passes for 210 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 9 carries for 56 yards.

Malik Willis, Week 4 against MIN: 39 of 39 snaps, 9 of 17 passes for 85 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 11 yards.

Malik Willis, Week 5 against CIN: 66 of 66 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 137 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 8 carries for 74 yards.

Malik Willis, Week 7 against NYJ: 65 of 65 snaps, 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 39 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Malik Willis played 4 games for GB and scored 51.2 PPR points, 12.8 a game, finishing QB45.

He completed 30 of 35 passes for 422 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and ran 22 times for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 10 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Malik Willis?
Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games) and Malik Willis 146 (14.6 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis, 16.1 to 15.5 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Malik Willis for Baker Mayfield?
Not on these numbers alone. Malik Willis projects 146 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (14.6 a game over 10 games) and Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis, 16.1 to 15.5 projected PPR points.