Should I drop Matthew Stafford for Baker Mayfield?

Not on these numbers alone. Matthew Stafford projects 146 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.2 a game over 9 games) and Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield, 17.8 to 16.1 projected PPR points.

Start Matthew Stafford or Baker Mayfield? Week 8

Updated Oct 28, 8:16 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Latest

Oct 22, 4:48 PM ET: Barring setbacks, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield expected to start vs. Panthers (ESPN)

Start Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield

Start

Matthew Stafford

QB · LAR · vs LAC

Market projects: 17.8; fantasy pts
LAC D vs QB: 15.2; 7th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 24 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 7

Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · vs ATL

Market projects: 16.1; fantasy pts
ATL D vs QB: 18.0; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 30 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 96%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Matthew Stafford?

Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games) and Matthew Stafford 146 (16.2 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield, 17.8 to 16.1 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Matthew Stafford at 17.8 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.1, a gap of 1.7. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Matthew Stafford at ADP 75 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.1 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (13, 13 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 17.8 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Matthew Stafford is 249 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 0-1 interceptions and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (11, 13, 4 and 9 market sources).

That puts Matthew Stafford 1.7 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 8 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ATL allowed 18.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 271 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against ATL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

Matthew Stafford and LAR host LAC on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

LAC allowed 15.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 216 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against LAC, with 0.8 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Matthew Stafford is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 129 times and threw an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Through Week 7, Matthew Stafford played 98 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 290 times and threw an average of 8.0 air yards per attempt.

Matthew Stafford, Week 4 against PHI: 84 of 84 snaps, 32 of 51 passes for 317 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 11 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 5 against BUF: 82 of 82 snaps, 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Matthew Stafford, Week 6 against ARI: 58 of 58 snaps, 25 of 33 passes for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Matthew Stafford, Week 7 against LV: 72 of 72 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 195 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Matthew Stafford?
Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games) and Matthew Stafford 146 (16.2 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield, 17.8 to 16.1 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Matthew Stafford for Baker Mayfield?
Not on these numbers alone. Matthew Stafford projects 146 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.2 a game over 9 games) and Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Baker Mayfield, 17.8 to 16.1 projected PPR points.

Should I drop Matthew Stafford?