Start Brian Thomas Jr. or Jalen Nailor? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 1:26 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Jalen Nailor

Thomas projects lower, 4.7 to 5.0, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 72 for Thomas, 174 for Nailor.

Start

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR · JAX · vs IND

Market projects: 4.7; recent weeks avg
IND D vs WR: 29.0; 8th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 31 of 100 at WR

Sit

Jalen Nailor

WR · LV · at NYJ

Market projects: 5.0; recent weeks avg
NYJ D vs WR: 30.6; 15th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 35 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 55%; Through Week 7
Target share: 9%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Jalen Nailor for Brian Thomas Jr.?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 67 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (6.7 a game over 10 games), Jalen Nailor 42 (4.7 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Brian Thomas Jr. over Jalen Nailor.

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Brian Thomas Jr. rookie cards

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Our Week 8 call

Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Jalen Nailor in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Brian Thomas Jr. at 4.7 points and Jalen Nailor at 5.0, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Brian Thomas Jr. still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 72 against 174, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Brian Thomas Jr. this week yet, so his 4.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5 and 6 (5.1 and 4.4); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Jalen Nailor this week yet, so his 5.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6 and 7 (5.8 and 4.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 8 player market is posted for Jalen Nailor yet. His market-based projections were 5.9 and 4.0 points in Weeks 6 and 7, an average of 5.0, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

No Week 8 player market is posted for Brian Thomas Jr. yet. His market-based projections were 5.1 and 4.4 points in Weeks 5 and 6, an average of 4.7, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

That puts Jalen Nailor 0.2 points ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

Jalen Nailor and LV visit NYJ on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

NYJ allowed 30.6 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 15th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 133 yards and 1.1 touchdowns a game against NYJ.

Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 29.0 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 8th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 142 yards and 0.7 touchdowns a game against IND.

By points allowed to the position, Jalen Nailor has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Jalen Nailor is not on the injury report.

Brian Thomas Jr. is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Jalen Nailor played 55 percent of LV snaps, drew 9 percent of the targets, earned 13 percent of the air yards and had 5 percent of the red zone chances.

Jalen Nailor, Week 3 against NO: 40 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 1 catch for 16 yards.

Jalen Nailor, Week 4 against KC: 19 of 84 snaps, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Jalen Nailor, Week 6 against BUF: 42 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 1 catch for 9 yards.

Jalen Nailor, Week 7 against LAR: 51 of 68 snaps, 5 targets and 2 catches for 14 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Jalen Nailor played 17 games for MIN and scored 100.7 PPR points, 5.9 a game, finishing WR61.

He caught 29 of 53 targets for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets and 332 air yards.

He was on the field for 65 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.

He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 51 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards, 3.8 PPR points.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Jalen Nailor for Brian Thomas Jr.?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 67 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (6.7 a game over 10 games), Jalen Nailor 42 (4.7 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Brian Thomas Jr. over Jalen Nailor.
Should I drop Brian Thomas Jr. for Jalen Nailor?
No. Keep Brian Thomas Jr.: he projects 67 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (6.7 a game over 10 games), Jalen Nailor 42 (4.7 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Brian Thomas Jr. over Jalen Nailor.