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Start Brian Thomas Jr. or Kayshon Boutte? Week 9

Updated Nov 4, 5:06 AM ET.

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  • : Jaylin Noel: Questionable to IR (Toe, Sprain) (Sleeper injury feed)

Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Kayshon Boutte

Thomas projects lower, 3.7 to 4.6, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 72 for Thomas, 189 for Boutte.

Start

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR · JAX · at BAL

Market projects
3.7
fantasy pts
BAL D vs WR
35.0
8th most to WRs (2026)
Upside
Rising
72 of 100 at WR
Snap share
52%
Through Week 8
Target share
12%
Through Week 8
Sit

Kayshon Boutte

WR · HOU · at LAC

Market projects
4.6
recent weeks avg
LAC D vs WR
30.3
16th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside
Limited
21 of 100 at WR
Snap share
54%
Through Week 7
Target share
10%
Through Week 7

Should I drop Brian Thomas Jr. for Kayshon Boutte?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Kayshon Boutte projects 56 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (6.2 a game over 9 games), Brian Thomas Jr. 49 (5.4 a game over 9 games). For Week 9 the call starts Brian Thomas Jr. over Kayshon Boutte. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Kayshon Boutte in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Brian Thomas Jr. at 3.7 points and Kayshon Boutte at 4.6, a gap of 0.8. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Brian Thomas Jr. still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 72 against 189, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Kayshon Boutte this week yet, so his 4.6 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6 and 7 (5.8 and 3.3); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 3.7 fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Brian Thomas Jr. is 13 receiving yards, 1-2 receptions and 0.2 touchdowns (11, 10 and 14 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for Kayshon Boutte yet. His market-based projections were 5.8 and 3.3 points in Weeks 6 and 7, an average of 4.6, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

The market-based projection for Kayshon Boutte is 0.1 touchdowns (9 market sources).

That puts Kayshon Boutte 0.8 points ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX visit BAL on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

BAL allowed 35.0 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 8 games, the 8th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 178 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against BAL.

Kayshon Boutte and HOU visit LAC on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

LAC allowed 30.3 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 16th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 133 yards and 0.9 touchdowns a game against LAC.

By points allowed to the position, Brian Thomas Jr. has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Brian Thomas Jr. is not on the injury report.

Kayshon Boutte is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Brian Thomas Jr. played 52 percent of JAX snaps, drew 12 percent of the targets, earned 22 percent of the air yards and had 25 percent of the red zone chances.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 8 against IND: 28 of 54 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 12 yards, 1 touchdown.

Through Week 7, Kayshon Boutte played 54 percent of HOU snaps, drew 10 percent of the targets, earned 12 percent of the air yards and had 5 percent of the red zone chances.

Kayshon Boutte, Week 4 against DAL: 34 of 55 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 36 yards.

Kayshon Boutte, Week 5 against TEN: 39 of 66 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 38 yards.

Kayshon Boutte, Week 6 against JAX: 26 of 63 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 16 yards.

Kayshon Boutte, Week 7 against NYG: 19 of 61 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 25 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.

He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.

In 2025, Kayshon Boutte played 14 games for NE and scored 124.1 PPR points, 8.9 a game, finishing WR51.

He caught 33 of 46 targets for 551 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 513 air yards.

He was on the field for 68 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Brian Thomas Jr. for Kayshon Boutte?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Kayshon Boutte projects 56 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (6.2 a game over 9 games), Brian Thomas Jr. 49 (5.4 a game over 9 games). For Week 9 the call starts Brian Thomas Jr. over Kayshon Boutte. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

  • Should I drop Kayshon Boutte for Brian Thomas Jr.?

    No. Keep Kayshon Boutte: he projects 56 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (6.2 a game over 9 games), Brian Thomas Jr. 49 (5.4 a game over 9 games). For Week 9 the call starts Brian Thomas Jr. over Kayshon Boutte.

Should I drop Brian Thomas Jr.?

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board