Start Caleb Williams or Sam Darnold? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 11:41 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Williams projects lower, 17.2 to 17.5, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 87 for Williams, 155 for Darnold.

Start

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · at SEA

Market projects: 17.2; fantasy pts
SEA D vs QB: 11.6; 2nd fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 53 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 97%; Through Week 7

Sit

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs CHI

Market projects: 17.5; fantasy pts
CHI D vs QB: 19.9; 10th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 34 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 89%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Sam Darnold for Caleb Williams?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Caleb Williams projects 167 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 9 games), Sam Darnold 136 (15.1 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Sam Darnold.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Caleb Williams over Sam Darnold in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Caleb Williams at 17.2 points and Sam Darnold at 17.5, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Caleb Williams still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 87 against 155, and that outweighs a gap this size. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Market coverage on Caleb Williams is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.5 fantasy points for Sam Darnold, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Sam Darnold is 233 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (9, 10 and 8 market sources).

Player markets imply 17.2 fantasy points for Caleb Williams, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Caleb Williams is 226 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (7, 9 and 8 market sources).

That puts Sam Darnold 0.4 points ahead of Caleb Williams on the market projections.

Week 8 matchups

Sam Darnold and SEA host CHI on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

CHI allowed 19.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 241 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CHI, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Caleb Williams and CHI visit SEA on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

SEA allowed 11.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 158 yards and 1.1 touchdowns a game against SEA, with 1.1 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Sam Darnold has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Sam Darnold is not on the injury report.

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Sam Darnold played 89 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 196 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Sam Darnold, Week 4 against LAC: 60 of 60 snaps, 13 of 22 passes for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 8 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 5 against SF: 63 of 63 snaps, 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 6 against DEN: 85 of 85 snaps, 27 of 49 passes for 278 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 19 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 7 against KC: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 28 passes for 257 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Through Week 7, Caleb Williams played 97 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 150 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 7 against NE: 69 of 69 snaps, 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 19 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Sam Darnold for Caleb Williams?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Caleb Williams projects 167 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 9 games), Sam Darnold 136 (15.1 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Sam Darnold.
Should I drop Caleb Williams for Sam Darnold?
No. Keep Caleb Williams: he projects 167 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 9 games), Sam Darnold 136 (15.1 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Sam Darnold.