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Start Courtland Sutton or Josh Downs? Week 9

Updated Nov 4, 5:06 AM ET.

Start Courtland Sutton over Josh Downs

Sutton projects lower, 9.3 to 10.3, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 60 for Sutton, 96 for Downs.

Start

Courtland Sutton

WR · DEN · at CAR

Market projects
9.3
fantasy pts
CAR D vs WR
29.8
13th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside
Moderate
46 of 100 at WR
Snap share
77%
Through Week 8
Target share
16%
Through Week 8
Sit

Josh Downs

WR · IND · vs DAL

Market projects
10.3
recent weeks avg
DAL D vs WR
35.6
7th most to WRs (2026)
Upside
High
92 of 100 at WR
Snap share
81%
Through Week 8
Target share
20%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Courtland Sutton for Josh Downs?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Josh Downs projects 91 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (11.4 a game over 8 games), Courtland Sutton 73 (9.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Courtland Sutton over Josh Downs. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Courtland Sutton over Josh Downs in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Courtland Sutton at 9.3 points and Josh Downs at 10.3, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Courtland Sutton still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 60 against 96, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Josh Downs this week yet, so his 10.3 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (12.3, 10.9 and 7.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for Josh Downs yet. His market-based projections were 12.3, 10.9 and 7.8 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 10.3, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

The market-based projection for Josh Downs is 0.3 touchdowns (8 market sources).

Player markets imply 9.3 fantasy points for Courtland Sutton, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Courtland Sutton is 37 receiving yards, 3-4 receptions and 0.4 touchdowns (12, 11 and 12 market sources).

That puts Josh Downs 1.0 points ahead of Courtland Sutton on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Josh Downs and IND host DAL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

DAL allowed 35.6 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 8 games, the 7th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 164 yards and a touchdown a game against DAL.

Courtland Sutton and DEN visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 29.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 13th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 144 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against CAR.

By points allowed to the position, Josh Downs has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

Courtland Sutton is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Josh Downs played 81 percent of IND snaps, drew 20 percent of the targets, earned 26 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 5 against PIT: 60 of 71 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 47 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 6 against TEN: 71 of 83 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 7 against MIN: 52 of 58 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 8 against JAX: 46 of 61 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 23 yards, 1 touchdown.

Through Week 8, Courtland Sutton played 77 percent of DEN snaps, drew 16 percent of the targets, earned 31 percent of the air yards and had 12 percent of the red zone chances.

Courtland Sutton, Week 5 against LAC: 50 of 62 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards, 1 touchdown.

Courtland Sutton, Week 6 against SEA: 46 of 60 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 19 yards.

Courtland Sutton, Week 7 against ARI: 43 of 61 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 45 yards.

Courtland Sutton, Week 8 against KC: 50 of 62 snaps, 4 targets and 4 catches for 53 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Courtland Sutton played 17 games for DEN and scored 219.7 PPR points, 12.9 a game, finishing WR13.

He caught 74 of 124 targets for 1017 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets and 795 air yards.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Courtland Sutton for Josh Downs?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Josh Downs projects 91 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (11.4 a game over 8 games), Courtland Sutton 73 (9.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Courtland Sutton over Josh Downs. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

  • Should I drop Josh Downs for Courtland Sutton?

    No. Keep Josh Downs: he projects 91 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (11.4 a game over 8 games), Courtland Sutton 73 (9.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Courtland Sutton over Josh Downs.

Should I drop Courtland Sutton?Should I drop Josh Downs?

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board