Should I drop DK Metcalf for Luther Burden III?

Not on these numbers alone. DK Metcalf projects 106 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.8 a game over 9 games) and Luther Burden III 104 (11.5 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf.

Start DK Metcalf or Luther Burden III? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 7:21 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf

Burden projects lower, 12.2 to 12.3, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 51 for Burden, 66 for Metcalf.

Start

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI · at SEA

Market projects: 12.2; recent weeks avg
SEA D vs WR: 20.9; fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 26 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 61%; Through Week 7
Target share: 13%; Through Week 7

Sit

DK Metcalf

WR · PIT · vs CLE

Market projects: 12.3; recent weeks avg
CLE D vs WR: 31.8; 14th most to WRs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 76 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 95%; Through Week 7
Target share: 24%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Luther Burden III for DK Metcalf?

Not on these numbers alone. Luther Burden III projects 104 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 9 games) and DK Metcalf 106 (11.8 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Luther Burden III at 12.2 points and DK Metcalf at 12.3, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Luther Burden III still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 51 against 66, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Luther Burden III this week yet, so his 12.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 (11.1, 12.6 and 12.7); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for DK Metcalf this week yet, so his 12.3 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 (12.1, 11.8 and 13.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 8 player market is posted for DK Metcalf yet. His market-based projections were 12.1, 11.8 and 13.0 points in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, an average of 12.3, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

The market-based projection for DK Metcalf is 0-1 touchdowns (7 market sources).

No Week 8 player market is posted for Luther Burden III yet. His market-based projections were 11.1, 12.6 and 12.7 points in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, an average of 12.2, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

The market-based projection for Luther Burden III is 0.4 touchdowns (6 market sources).

That puts DK Metcalf 0.2 points ahead of Luther Burden III on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

DK Metcalf and PIT host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CLE allowed 31.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 14th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 150 yards and a touchdown a game against CLE.

Luther Burden III and CHI visit SEA on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

SEA allowed 20.9 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 92 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against SEA.

By points allowed to the position, DK Metcalf has the softer matchup.

Injury status

DK Metcalf is not on the injury report.

Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, DK Metcalf played 95 percent of PIT snaps, drew 24 percent of the targets, earned 38 percent of the air yards and had 9 percent of the red zone chances.

DK Metcalf, Week 4 against CLE: 70 of 72 snaps, 9 targets and 5 catches for 115 yards.

DK Metcalf, Week 5 against IND: 55 of 60 snaps, 1 carry for 11 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 12 yards.

DK Metcalf, Week 6 against TB: 75 of 79 snaps, 15 targets and 11 catches for 93 yards.

DK Metcalf, Week 7 against NO: 59 of 64 snaps, 6 targets and 2 catches for 56 yards.

Through Week 7, Luther Burden III played 61 percent of CHI snaps, drew 13 percent of the targets, earned 13 percent of the air yards and had 17 percent of the red zone chances.

Luther Burden III, Week 7 against NE: 42 of 69 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 130 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, DK Metcalf played 15 games for PIT and scored 187.2 PPR points, 12.5 a game, finishing WR26.

He caught 59 of 99 targets for 850 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 13 red zone targets and 436 air yards.

He was on the field for 87 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Luther Burden III played 15 games for CHI and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 318 air yards.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 1 carry for 10 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 7.5 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 38 of 66 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 138 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.8 PPR points.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Luther Burden III for DK Metcalf?
Not on these numbers alone. Luther Burden III projects 104 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 9 games) and DK Metcalf 106 (11.8 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf.
Should I drop DK Metcalf for Luther Burden III?
Not on these numbers alone. DK Metcalf projects 106 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.8 a game over 9 games) and Luther Burden III 104 (11.5 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf.

Should I drop Luther Burden III?