Start A.J. Brown or Luther Burden III? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 8:26 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start A.J. Brown over Luther Burden III

Start

A.J. Brown

WR · NE · at MIA

Market projects: 13.7; recent weeks avg
MIA D vs WR: 23.8; 3rd fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 70 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 68%; Through Week 7
Target share: 22%; Through Week 7

Sit

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI · at SEA

Market projects: 12.2; recent weeks avg
SEA D vs WR: 20.9; fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 26 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 61%; Through Week 7
Target share: 13%; Through Week 7

Should I drop A.J. Brown for Luther Burden III?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Luther Burden III projects 104 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 9 games), A.J. Brown 85 (9.4 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts A.J. Brown over Luther Burden III. So make the move after his Week 8 game.

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A.J. Brown rookie cards Luther Burden III rookie cards

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Our Week 8 call

Start A.J. Brown over Luther Burden III in Week 8.

Market-based projections have A.J. Brown at 13.7 points and Luther Burden III at 12.2, a gap of 1.5. No player market is posted for A.J. Brown this week yet, so his 13.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6 and 7 (11.8 and 15.5); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Luther Burden III this week yet, so his 12.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 (11.1, 12.6 and 12.7); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take A.J. Brown at ADP 17 and Luther Burden III at 51.

What the market projects

No Week 8 player market is posted for A.J. Brown yet. His market-based projections were 11.8 and 15.5 points in Weeks 6 and 7, an average of 13.7, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

The market-based projection for A.J. Brown is 0-1 touchdowns (7 market sources).

No Week 8 player market is posted for Luther Burden III yet. His market-based projections were 11.1, 12.6 and 12.7 points in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, an average of 12.2, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

The market-based projection for Luther Burden III is 0.4 touchdowns (6 market sources).

That puts A.J. Brown 1.5 points ahead of Luther Burden III on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

A.J. Brown and NE visit MIA on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

MIA allowed 23.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 116 yards and 0-1 touchdowns a game against MIA.

Luther Burden III and CHI visit SEA on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

SEA allowed 20.9 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 92 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against SEA.

By points allowed to the position, A.J. Brown has the softer matchup.

Injury status

A.J. Brown is not on the injury report.

Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, A.J. Brown played 68 percent of NE snaps, drew 22 percent of the targets, earned 35 percent of the air yards and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

A.J. Brown, Week 1 against SEA: 31 of 71 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards.

A.J. Brown, Week 6 against NYJ: 52 of 68 snaps, 10 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards.

A.J. Brown, Week 7 against CHI: 49 of 54 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 48 yards.

Through Week 7, Luther Burden III played 61 percent of CHI snaps, drew 13 percent of the targets, earned 13 percent of the air yards and had 17 percent of the red zone chances.

Luther Burden III, Week 7 against NE: 42 of 69 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 130 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, A.J. Brown played 15 games for PHI and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.

He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 735 air yards.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Luther Burden III played 15 games for CHI and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 318 air yards.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 1 carry for 10 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 7.5 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 38 of 66 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 138 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.8 PPR points.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop A.J. Brown for Luther Burden III?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Luther Burden III projects 104 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 9 games), A.J. Brown 85 (9.4 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts A.J. Brown over Luther Burden III. So make the move after his Week 8 game.
Should I drop Luther Burden III for A.J. Brown?
No. Keep Luther Burden III: he projects 104 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 9 games), A.J. Brown 85 (9.4 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts A.J. Brown over Luther Burden III.

Should I drop Luther Burden III?