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Start Luther Burden III or Josh Downs? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 8:26 AM ET.

Start Luther Burden III over Josh Downs

Start

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI · at SEA

Market projects
12.2
recent weeks avg
SEA D vs WR
20.9
fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside
Limited
26 of 100 at WR
Snap share
61%
Through Week 7
Target share
13%
Through Week 7
Sit

Josh Downs

WR · IND · at JAX

Market projects
11.7
recent weeks avg
JAX D vs WR
38.0
4th most to WRs (2026)
Upside
Rising
74 of 100 at WR
Snap share
82%
Through Week 7
Target share
20%
Through Week 7

Should I drop Luther Burden III for Josh Downs?

Not on these numbers alone. Luther Burden III projects 104 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 9 games) and Josh Downs 105 (11.7 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Luther Burden III over Josh Downs.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Luther Burden III over Josh Downs in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Luther Burden III at 12.2 points and Josh Downs at 11.7, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Luther Burden III this week yet, so his 12.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 (11.1, 12.6 and 12.7); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Josh Downs this week yet, so his 11.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 (12.0, 12.3 and 10.9); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Luther Burden III at ADP 51 and Josh Downs at 96.

What the market projects

No Week 8 player market is posted for Luther Burden III yet. His market-based projections were 11.1, 12.6 and 12.7 points in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, an average of 12.2, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

The market-based projection for Luther Burden III is 0.4 touchdowns (6 market sources).

No Week 8 player market is posted for Josh Downs yet. His market-based projections were 12.0, 12.3 and 10.9 points in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, an average of 11.7, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

That puts Luther Burden III 0.5 points ahead of Josh Downs on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

Luther Burden III and CHI visit SEA on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

SEA allowed 20.9 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 92 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against SEA.

Josh Downs and IND visit JAX on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

JAX allowed 38.0 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 4th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 210 yards and 0-1 touchdowns a game against JAX.

By points allowed to the position, Josh Downs has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Luther Burden III played 61 percent of CHI snaps, drew 13 percent of the targets, earned 13 percent of the air yards and had 17 percent of the red zone chances.

Luther Burden III, Week 7 against NE: 42 of 69 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 130 yards, 1 touchdown.

Through Week 7, Josh Downs played 82 percent of IND snaps, drew 20 percent of the targets, earned 26 percent of the air yards and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 4 against WAS: 51 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 5 against PIT: 60 of 71 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 47 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 6 against TEN: 71 of 83 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 7 against MIN: 52 of 58 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Luther Burden III played 15 games for CHI and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 318 air yards.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 1 carry for 10 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 7.5 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 38 of 66 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 138 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.8 PPR points.

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Luther Burden III for Josh Downs?

    Not on these numbers alone. Luther Burden III projects 104 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 9 games) and Josh Downs 105 (11.7 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Luther Burden III over Josh Downs.

  • Should I drop Josh Downs for Luther Burden III?

    Not on these numbers alone. Josh Downs projects 105 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (11.7 a game over 9 games) and Luther Burden III 104 (11.5 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Luther Burden III over Josh Downs.

Should I drop Josh Downs?Should I drop Luther Burden III?

Week 8 on the board

Elsewhere on the board