Start George Pickens or Luther Burden III? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 4:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start George Pickens over Luther Burden III

Start

George Pickens

WR · DAL · at PHI

Market projects: 13.7; fantasy pts
PHI D vs WR: 38.3; 3rd most to WRs (2026)
Upside: High; 91 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 85%; Through Week 6
Target share: 22%; Through Week 6

Sit

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI · vs NE

Market projects: 12.7; fantasy pts
NE D vs WR: 31.7; 16th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 82 of 100 at WR

Should I drop Luther Burden III for George Pickens?

Yes, on the rest of the season. George Pickens projects 142 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.2 a game over 10 games), Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts George Pickens over Luther Burden III, 13.7 to 12.7 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 7 call

Start George Pickens over Luther Burden III in Week 7.

Market-based projections have George Pickens at 13.7 points and Luther Burden III at 12.7, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take George Pickens at ADP 19 and Luther Burden III at 51.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 13.7 fantasy points for George Pickens, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for George Pickens is 63 receiving yards, 4-5 receptions and 0-1 touchdowns (8, 6 and 11 market sources).

Player markets imply 12.7 fantasy points for Luther Burden III, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Luther Burden III is 57 receiving yards, 4-5 receptions and 0.4 touchdowns (13, 11 and 13 market sources).

That puts George Pickens 1.0 points ahead of Luther Burden III on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

George Pickens and DAL visit PHI on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

PHI allowed 38.3 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 181 yards and a touchdown a game against PHI.

Luther Burden III and CHI host NE on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

NE allowed 31.7 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 16th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 142 yards and a touchdown a game against NE.

By points allowed to the position, George Pickens has the softer matchup.

Injury status

George Pickens is not on the injury report.

Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, George Pickens played 85 percent of DAL snaps, drew 22 percent of the targets, earned 32 percent of the air yards and had 9 percent of the red zone chances.

George Pickens, Week 3 against BAL: 63 of 74 snaps, 11 targets and 7 catches for 82 yards.

George Pickens, Week 4 against HOU: 67 of 78 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 75 yards.

George Pickens, Week 5 against TB: 53 of 60 snaps, 13 targets and 9 catches for 130 yards, 1 touchdown.

George Pickens, Week 6 against GB: 69 of 78 snaps, 11 targets and 6 catches for 73 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, George Pickens played 17 games for DAL and scored 291.9 PPR points, 17.2 a game, finishing WR5.

He caught 93 of 137 targets for 1429 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 21 red zone targets and 950 air yards.

He was on the field for 83 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Luther Burden III played 15 games for CHI and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 318 air yards.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 1 carry for 10 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 7.5 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 38 of 66 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 138 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.8 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 15 of 2025 against CLE: 26 of 66 snaps, 7 targets and 6 catches for 84 yards, 14.4 PPR points.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Luther Burden III for George Pickens?
Yes, on the rest of the season. George Pickens projects 142 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.2 a game over 10 games), Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts George Pickens over Luther Burden III, 13.7 to 12.7 projected PPR points.
Should I drop George Pickens for Luther Burden III?
No. Keep George Pickens: he projects 142 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.2 a game over 10 games), Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts George Pickens over Luther Burden III, 13.7 to 12.7 projected PPR points.