Should I drop Jaylen Waddle for Josh Downs?

Not on these numbers alone. Jaylen Waddle projects 123 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.3 a game over 10 games) and Josh Downs 121 (12.1 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Jaylen Waddle over Josh Downs. Jaylen Waddle is listed questionable.

Start Jaylen Waddle or Josh Downs? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 2:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Jaylen Waddle over Josh Downs

Waddle projects lower, 11.9 to 13.5, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 43 for Waddle, 96 for Downs.

Start

Jaylen Waddle

WR · DEN · at ARI · Questionable

Market projects: 11.9; recent weeks avg
ARI D vs WR: 34.9; 10th most to WRs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 57 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 68%; Through Week 6
Target share: 22%; Through Week 6

Sit

Josh Downs

WR · IND · at MIN

Market projects: 13.5; recent weeks avg
MIN D vs WR: 27.1; 5th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 45 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 81%; Through Week 6
Target share: 21%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Josh Downs for Jaylen Waddle?

Not on these numbers alone. Josh Downs projects 121 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.1 a game over 10 games) and Jaylen Waddle 123 (12.3 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Jaylen Waddle over Josh Downs. Jaylen Waddle is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Jaylen Waddle over Josh Downs in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Jaylen Waddle at 11.9 points and Josh Downs at 13.5, a gap of 1.6. Jaylen Waddle still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 43 against 96, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Jaylen Waddle this week yet, so his 11.9 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (12.5, 12.4 and 10.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Josh Downs this week yet, so his 13.5 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (16.3, 12.0 and 12.3); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Josh Downs yet. His market-based projections were 16.3, 12.0 and 12.3 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 13.5, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Josh Downs is 0.2 touchdowns (7 market sources).

No Week 7 player market is posted for Jaylen Waddle yet. His market-based projections were 12.5, 12.4 and 10.8 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 11.9, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Jaylen Waddle is 0-1 touchdowns (7 market sources).

That puts Josh Downs 1.6 points ahead of Jaylen Waddle on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Josh Downs and IND visit MIN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIN allowed 27.1 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 5th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 133 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against MIN.

Jaylen Waddle and DEN visit ARI on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

ARI allowed 34.9 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 10th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 153 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game against ARI.

By points allowed to the position, Jaylen Waddle has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

Jaylen Waddle is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Josh Downs played 81 percent of IND snaps, drew 21 percent of the targets, earned 26 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 3 against HOU: 48 of 71 snaps, 11 targets and 5 catches for 77 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 4 against WAS: 51 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 5 against PIT: 60 of 71 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 47 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 6 against TEN: 71 of 83 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards.

Through Week 6, Jaylen Waddle played 68 percent of DEN snaps, drew 22 percent of the targets, earned 38 percent of the air yards and had 7 percent of the red zone chances.

Jaylen Waddle, Week 3 against LAR: 49 of 67 snaps, 1 carry for 14 yards, 7 targets and 2 catches for 10 yards.

Jaylen Waddle, Week 4 against SF: 45 of 65 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 35 yards, 1 touchdown.

Jaylen Waddle, Week 5 against LAC: 40 of 62 snaps, 1 carry for 9 yards, 5 targets and 2 catches for 19 yards.

Jaylen Waddle, Week 6 against SEA: 39 of 60 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 24 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Jaylen Waddle played 16 games for MIA and scored 194.1 PPR points, 12.1 a game, finishing WR24.

He caught 64 of 100 targets for 910 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets and 682 air yards.

He was on the field for 78 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Josh Downs for Jaylen Waddle?
Not on these numbers alone. Josh Downs projects 121 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.1 a game over 10 games) and Jaylen Waddle 123 (12.3 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Jaylen Waddle over Josh Downs. Jaylen Waddle is listed questionable.
Should I drop Jaylen Waddle for Josh Downs?
Not on these numbers alone. Jaylen Waddle projects 123 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.3 a game over 10 games) and Josh Downs 121 (12.1 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Jaylen Waddle over Josh Downs. Jaylen Waddle is listed questionable.