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Trade Caleb Williams for Luther Burden III? Close to even, 16 to 23.

Close to even. On rest-of-season value Caleb Williams is 16 and Luther Burden III is 23, a 7 point edge to Burden that sits inside the 8 points these values cannot separate. Take the one your lineup is short of. Williams rates 18.5 market points a game with 10 games left, Burden 11.5 with 10. On usage, Williams has thrown 30.3 passes and run 6.0 times a game; Burden has drawn 22 percent of CHI targets. Williams hosts NE in Week 7 (6th fewest points allowed to QBs); Burden hosts NE in Week 7 (16th fewest points allowed to WRs). Neither carries an injury designation this week.

The verdict, Week 7

Close to even.

Caleb Williams 1623 Luther Burden III

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Caleb Williams

QB2CHI

16

value, #63

Pts/game
18.5
Games left
10
Bye
10
Caleb Williams weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7
no projectionno projectionno projection18.518.6

Luther Burden III

WR25CHI

23

value, #54

Pts/game
11.5
Games left
10
Bye
10
Luther Burden III weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7
4.811.311.511.912.7

Where the values come from

Williams is the 2nd quarterback on the chart and 63rd overall. His 18.5 a game is 1.6 above the replacement quarterback's 16.9, over 10 games left with his bye in Week 10, which is how he comes to 16.

Burden is the 25th receiver on the chart and 54th overall. His 11.5 a game is 2.3 above the replacement receiver's 9.2, over 10 games left with his bye in Week 10, which is how he comes to 23.

The weekly projections

Parlae's market-based projections had Caleb Williams at 18.5 in Week 6 and 18.6 in Week 7, a median of 18.5 points a game, flat across them.

Parlae's market-based projections had Luther Burden III at 4.8 in Week 3, 11.3 in Week 4, 11.5 in Week 5, 11.9 in Week 6 and 12.7 in Week 7, a median of 11.5 points a game, up 7.9 from his first frozen week to his latest.

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Points so far against the price

Caleb Williams has scored 62.5 PPR points in 3 games, 20.8 a game, 2.3 a game more than the 18.5 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished QB5 with 325.2 PPR points in 17 games, 19.1 a game.

Week 1 vs CAR: 37.3 points (QB1 that week), 269 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, 65 rushing yards, 100 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs MIN: 8.7 points (QB27 that week), 138 passing yards, 0 touchdown passes, 42 rushing yards, 86 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs ATL: 16.5 points (QB15 that week), 305 passing yards, 1 touchdown pass, 3 rushing yards, 100 percent of snaps.

Luther Burden III has scored 73.3 PPR points in 6 games, 12.2 a game, 0.7 a game more than the 11.5 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR48 with 127.9 PPR points in 15 games, 8.5 a game.

Week 1 vs CAR: 9.5 points (WR37 that week), 2 rushing yards on 1 carry, 5 of 5 targets for 63 yards, 73 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs MIN: 6.2 points (WR63 that week), 3 of 7 targets for 32 yards, 57 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs PHI: 19.8 points (WR13 that week), 7 rushing yards on 1 carry, 7 of 11 targets for 61 yards, 1 touchdown, 61 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs NYJ: 11.4 points (WR40 that week), 11 rushing yards on 1 carry, 4 of 6 targets for 63 yards, 56 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs GB: 8.9 points (WR41 that week), 2 rushing yards on 4 carries, 4 of 6 targets for 47 yards, 77 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs ATL: 17.5 points (WR14 that week), 8 of 8 targets for 95 yards, 39 percent of snaps.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 6, Caleb Williams has averaged 30.3 attempts, 237 passing yards and 1.0 touchdown passes a game, with 6.0 runs for 37 yards on 96 percent of the snaps.

In Week 6 against ATL he went 30 of 36 for 305 yards and 1 touchdown.

Through Week 6, Luther Burden III has averaged 1.2 carries for 4 yards and 7.2 targets and 5.2 catches for 60 yards a game on 60 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 11 times inside the 20, 12 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 1 touchdown in 6 games.

In Week 6 against ATL he had 8 targets on 39 percent of the snaps.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 7 through Week 17. Caleb Williams has 10 games in it with his bye in Week 10; Luther Burden III has 10 games with his bye in Week 10.

NE, Williams's Week 7 opponent, has allowed 14.6 PPR points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 6th fewest to QBs of 32.

NE, Burden's Week 7 opponent, has allowed 31.7 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 16th fewest to WRs of 32.

Other trades for Caleb Williams and Luther Burden III

The full Week 7 trade value chart

Week 7 on the board

Common questions

  • Should I trade Caleb Williams for Luther Burden III?

    It is close to even: Caleb Williams is 16 and Luther Burden III is 23 on rest-of-season value, inside the 8 points the values cannot separate. Take the one who starts for you.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, Caleb Williams or Luther Burden III?

    Luther Burden III, 23 to 16. He rates 11.5 market points a game over 10 games left, against 18.5 over 10 for Caleb Williams, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 7 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 22, 2026 at 2:11 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number