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Trade Caleb Williams for Patrick Mahomes? No, Williams is worth 10 more.

No on value. Caleb Williams is worth 16 rest of season and Patrick Mahomes 6, so giving up Williams costs 10. Williams rates 18.5 market points a game with 10 games left, Mahomes 17.4 with 11. On usage, Williams has thrown 30.3 passes and run 6.0 times a game; Mahomes has thrown 31.6 passes and run 2.2 times a game. Williams hosts NE in Week 7 (6th fewest points allowed to QBs); Mahomes is at SEA in Week 7 (2nd fewest points allowed to QBs). Neither carries an injury designation this week.

The verdict, Week 7

Keeping Caleb Williams wins by 10.

Caleb Williams 166 Patrick Mahomes

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Caleb Williams

QB2CHI

16

value, #63

Pts/game
18.5
Games left
10
Bye
10
Caleb Williams weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7
no projectionno projectionno projection18.518.6

Patrick Mahomes

QB7KC

6

value, #73

Pts/game
17.4
Games left
11
Bye
5
Patrick Mahomes weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7
18.317.7no projection17.116.3

Where the values come from

Williams is the 2nd quarterback on the chart and 63rd overall. His 18.5 a game is 1.6 above the replacement quarterback's 16.9, over 10 games left with his bye in Week 10, which is how he comes to 16.

Mahomes is the 7th quarterback on the chart and 73rd overall. His 17.4 a game is 0.5 above the replacement quarterback's 16.9, over 11 games left with no bye left, which is how he comes to 6.

The weekly projections

Parlae's market-based projections had Caleb Williams at 18.5 in Week 6 and 18.6 in Week 7, a median of 18.5 points a game, flat across them.

Parlae's market-based projections had Patrick Mahomes at 18.3 in Week 3, 17.7 in Week 4, 17.1 in Week 6 and 16.3 in Week 7, a median of 17.4 points a game, down 2.0 from his first frozen week to his latest.

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Points so far against the price

Caleb Williams has scored 62.5 PPR points in 3 games, 20.8 a game, 2.3 a game more than the 18.5 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished QB5 with 325.2 PPR points in 17 games, 19.1 a game.

Week 1 vs CAR: 37.3 points (QB1 that week), 269 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, 65 rushing yards, 100 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs MIN: 8.7 points (QB27 that week), 138 passing yards, 0 touchdown passes, 42 rushing yards, 86 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs ATL: 16.5 points (QB15 that week), 305 passing yards, 1 touchdown pass, 3 rushing yards, 100 percent of snaps.

Patrick Mahomes has scored 97.1 PPR points in 5 games, 19.4 a game, 2.0 a game more than the 17.4 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished QB11 with 296.7 PPR points in 14 games, 21.2 a game.

Week 1 vs DEN: 22.7 points (QB9 that week), 184 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, 23 rushing yards, 100 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs IND: 29.0 points (QB4 that week), 382 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 17 rushing yards, 100 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs MIA: 16.9 points (QB20 that week), 246 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, 1 rushing yards, 100 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs LV: 17.0 points (QB13 that week), 225 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, 100 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs LAC: 11.5 points (QB23 that week), 272 passing yards, 0 touchdown passes, 16 rushing yards, 100 percent of snaps.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 6, Caleb Williams has averaged 30.3 attempts, 237 passing yards and 1.0 touchdown passes a game, with 6.0 runs for 37 yards on 96 percent of the snaps.

In Week 6 against ATL he went 30 of 36 for 305 yards and 1 touchdown.

Through Week 6, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 31.6 attempts, 262 passing yards and 1.8 touchdown passes a game, with 2.2 runs for 13 yards on 100 percent of the snaps.

In Week 6 against LAC he went 23 of 30 for 272 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 7 through Week 17. Caleb Williams has 10 games in it with his bye in Week 10; Patrick Mahomes has 11 games with no bye left.

NE, Williams's Week 7 opponent, has allowed 14.6 PPR points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 6th fewest to QBs of 32.

SEA, Mahomes's Week 7 opponent, has allowed 12.3 PPR points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 2nd fewest to QBs of 32.

What would even it

The side getting Patrick Mahomes would want about 10 more added to make it even: a player like Dak Prescott, valued at 11. Two players for Williams also costs that side a roster spot.

Dak Prescott's player page

Other trades for Caleb Williams and Patrick Mahomes

The full Week 7 trade value chart

Week 7 on the board

Common questions

  • Should I trade Caleb Williams for Patrick Mahomes?

    No on value: Caleb Williams is worth 16 and Patrick Mahomes 6, a loss of 10. It can still help a lineup that needs a quarterback more than it needs Williams.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes?

    Caleb Williams, 16 to 6. He rates 18.5 market points a game over 10 games left, against 17.4 over 11 for Patrick Mahomes, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 7 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 22, 2026 at 12:01 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number