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Trade Josh Downs for Michael Wilson? Close to even, 25 to 17.

Close to even. On rest-of-season value Josh Downs is 25 and Michael Wilson is 17, a 8 point edge to Downs that sits inside the 8 points these values cannot separate. Take the one your lineup is short of. Downs rates 11.7 market points a game with 10 games left, Wilson 10.9 with 10. On usage, Downs has drawn 21 percent of IND targets; Wilson has drawn 25 percent of ARI targets. Downs is at MIN in Week 7 (5th fewest points allowed to WRs); Wilson hosts DEN in Week 7 (7th fewest points allowed to WRs). Neither carries an injury designation this week.

The verdict, Week 7

Close to even.

Josh Downs 2517 Michael Wilson

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Josh Downs

WR23IND

25

value, #52

Pts/game
11.7
Games left
10
Bye
13
Josh Downs weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7
11.414.212.511.71.3

Michael Wilson

WR28ARI

17

value, #62

Pts/game
10.9
Games left
10
Bye
14
Michael Wilson weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7
1.52.115.813.510.9

Where the values come from

Downs is the 23rd receiver on the chart and 52nd overall. His 11.7 a game is 2.5 above the replacement receiver's 9.2, over 10 games left with his bye in Week 13, which is how he comes to 25.

Wilson is the 28th receiver on the chart and 62nd overall. His 10.9 a game is 1.7 above the replacement receiver's 9.2, over 10 games left with his bye in Week 14, which is how he comes to 17.

The weekly projections

Parlae's market-based projections had Josh Downs at 11.4 in Week 3, 14.2 in Week 4, 12.5 in Week 5, 11.7 in Week 6 and 1.3 in Week 7, a median of 11.7 points a game, down 10.0 from his first frozen week to his latest.

Parlae's market-based projections had Michael Wilson at 1.5 in Week 3, 2.2 in Week 4, 15.8 in Week 5, 13.5 in Week 6 and 10.9 in Week 7, a median of 10.9 points a game, up 9.4 from his first frozen week to his latest.

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Points so far against the price

Josh Downs has scored 53.6 PPR points in 6 games, 8.9 a game, 2.8 a game less than the 11.7 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR44 with 136.4 PPR points in 16 games, 8.5 a game.

Week 1 vs BAL: 5.7 points (WR65 that week), 2 of 4 targets for 37 yards, 89 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs KC: 14.2 points (WR20 that week), 7 of 9 targets for 72 yards, 83 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs HOU: 12.7 points (WR30 that week), 5 of 11 targets for 77 yards, 68 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs WAS: 4.6 points (WR77 that week), 3 of 4 targets for 16 yards, 77 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs PIT: 7.7 points (WR43 that week), 3 of 6 targets for 47 yards, 85 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs TEN: 8.7 points (WR41 that week), 7 rushing yards on 1 carry, 4 of 8 targets for 40 yards, 86 percent of snaps.

Michael Wilson has scored 71.3 PPR points in 6 games, 11.9 a game, 1.0 a game more than the 10.9 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR10 with 220.6 PPR points in 17 games, 13.0 a game.

Week 1 vs LAC: 10.6 points (WR31 that week), 5 of 7 targets for 56 yards, 85 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs SEA: 3.8 points (WR81 that week), 2 of 7 targets for 18 yards, 94 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs SF: 25.9 points (WR4 that week), 11 of 17 targets for 89 yards, 1 touchdown, 93 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs NYG: 16.5 points (WR17 that week), 7 of 13 targets for 95 yards, 94 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs DET: 7.3 points (WR50 that week), 4 of 7 targets for 30 yards, 84 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs LAR: 7.2 points (WR49 that week), 4 of 7 targets for 32 yards, 92 percent of snaps.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 6, Josh Downs has averaged 7.0 targets and 4.0 catches for 48 yards a game on 81 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 6 times inside the 20, 11 percent of his team's chances there, and has not scored in 6 games.

In Week 6 against TEN he had 1 carry and 8 targets on 86 percent of the snaps.

Through Week 6, Michael Wilson has averaged 9.7 targets and 5-6 catches for 53 yards a game on 90 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 10 times inside the 20, 13 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 1 touchdown in 6 games.

In Week 6 against LAR he had 7 targets on 92 percent of the snaps.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 7 through Week 17. Josh Downs has 10 games in it with his bye in Week 13; Michael Wilson has 10 games with his bye in Week 14.

MIN, Downs's Week 7 opponent, has allowed 27.1 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 5th fewest to WRs of 32.

DEN, Wilson's Week 7 opponent, has allowed 29.3 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 7th fewest to WRs of 32.

Other trades for Josh Downs and Michael Wilson

The full Week 7 trade value chart

Week 7 on the board

Common questions

  • Should I trade Josh Downs for Michael Wilson?

    It is close to even: Josh Downs is 25 and Michael Wilson is 17 on rest-of-season value, inside the 8 points the values cannot separate. Take the one who starts for you.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, Josh Downs or Michael Wilson?

    Josh Downs, 25 to 17. He rates 11.7 market points a game over 10 games left, against 10.9 over 10 for Michael Wilson, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 7 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 22, 2026 at 2:06 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number