Start T.J. Hockenson or Dalton Kincaid? Week 9

Our Week 9 call

Start Dalton Kincaid over T.J. Hockenson in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Dalton Kincaid at 9.9 points and T.J. Hockenson at 10.9, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Dalton Kincaid still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 158 against 224, and that outweighs a gap this size.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 10.9 fantasy points for T.J. Hockenson, with 100 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

The market-based projection for T.J. Hockenson is 43 receiving yards, 4-5 receptions and 0.4 touchdowns (6, 6 and 8 market sources).

Player markets imply 9.9 fantasy points for Dalton Kincaid, with 100 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

The market-based projection for Dalton Kincaid is 46 receiving yards, 3-4 receptions and 0.3 touchdowns (6, 6 and 8 market sources).

That puts T.J. Hockenson 1.0 points ahead of Dalton Kincaid on the market projections.

Week 9 matchups

T.J. Hockenson and MIN host BUF on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

BUF allowed 14.1 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 7 games, the 13th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 71 yards and 0.1 touchdowns a game against BUF.

Dalton Kincaid and BUF visit MIN on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

MIN allowed 7.1 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 7 games, the fewest in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 39 yards and no touchdowns a game against MIN.

By points allowed to the position, T.J. Hockenson has the softer matchup.

Injury status

T.J. Hockenson is not on the injury report.

Dalton Kincaid is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, T.J. Hockenson played 65 percent of MIN snaps, drew 20 percent of the targets, earned 18 percent of the air yards and had 19 percent of the red zone chances.

T.J. Hockenson, Week 4 against MIA: 65 of 78 snaps, 13 targets and 13 catches for 119 yards.

T.J. Hockenson, Week 5 against NO: 2 of 71 snaps, 1 target and 1 catch for 7 yards.

T.J. Hockenson, Week 7 against IND: 45 of 59 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 35 yards, 1 touchdown.

T.J. Hockenson, Week 8 against DET: 44 of 53 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 58 yards, 1 touchdown.

Through Week 8, Dalton Kincaid played 66 percent of BUF snaps, drew 18 percent of the targets, earned 19 percent of the air yards and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 4 against NE: 35 of 59 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 7 yards.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 5 against LAR: 45 of 64 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 7 yards.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 6 against LV: 49 of 68 snaps, 8 targets and 7 catches for 38 yards.

Dalton Kincaid, Week 8 against BAL: 47 of 82 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 86 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, T.J. Hockenson played 15 games for MIN and scored 112.8 PPR points, 7.5 a game, finishing TE26.

He caught 51 of 66 targets for 438 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets and 224 air yards.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Dalton Kincaid played 12 games for BUF and scored 126.1 PPR points, 10.5 a game, finishing TE20.

He caught 39 of 49 targets for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 312 air yards.

He was on the field for 40 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

• Start T.J. Hockenson over Brenton Strange.
• Start Brock Bowers over T.J. Hockenson.
• Start T.J. Hockenson over Cade Otton.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Brenton Strange.
• Start Brock Bowers over Dalton Kincaid.
• Start Dalton Kincaid over Cade Otton.