Should I start Darren Waller or Noah Gray in Week 9?

The market-based projections

Darren Waller's market-based projection is 4.7 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 13 market sources. That is the 128th highest figure of the 226 players with a market-based projection.

Noah Gray's market-based projection is 3.8 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 6 market sources. That is the 139th highest figure of the 226 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Darren Waller, and the board ranks him 152nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Noah Gray, and the board ranks him 170th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 8

Through Week 8, Darren Waller has been on the field for 48 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 10 percent of the targets and had 6 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 9 of the offence's 53 third down targets, had 0 of its 13 chances inside the five and seen 7 of its 34 two minute targets.

His 25 targets have averaged 9.4 air yards.

In Week 6 against PHI he caught 0 of 2 targets for 0 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against TB he caught 1 of 2 targets for 50 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 8 against GB he caught 1 of 2 targets for 11 yards and did not score.

Through Week 8, Noah Gray has been on the field for 58 percent of KC snaps, drawn 7 percent of the targets and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 4 of the offence's 58 third down targets, had 1 of its 22 chances inside the five and seen 1 of its 28 two minute targets.

His 16 targets have averaged 6.4 air yards.

In Week 6 against LAC he caught 3 of 3 targets for 53 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against SEA he caught 3 of 3 targets for 44 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against DEN he caught 2 of 2 targets for 15 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Darren Waller played 9 games and scored 88.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing TE33.

He caught 24 of 34 targets for 283 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 7 red zone targets.

That came to 3.8 targets a game, a 71 percent catch rate and 11.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 45 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Noah Gray played 16 games and scored 38.8 PPR points, 2.4 a game, finishing TE59.

He caught 21 of 37 targets for 178 yards and 0 touchdowns, with 1 red zone target.

That came to 2.3 targets a game, a 57 percent catch rate and 9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 52 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Noah Gray was available for 7 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Darren Waller scored 9.9 PPR points a game and Noah Gray 2.4, 7.4 a game between them.

Darren Waller finished TE33 that year and Noah Gray TE59.

Noah Gray had 3 more targets than Darren Waller, 37 to 34.

Darren Waller had 105 more receiving yards than Noah Gray, 283 to 178.

This season Noah Gray holds the bigger snap share, 58 percent against 48 percent.

This season Darren Waller holds the bigger target share, 10 percent against 7 percent.

Byes and availability

Darren Waller is off in Week 5. No bye is listed for Noah Gray.

What would change the answer

0.9 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.