Geno Smith or Malik Willis: who to draft first

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Geno Smith at 14.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 18 books. That is the 45th highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

The player markets price Malik Willis at 14.4 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 17 books. That is the 47th highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Geno Smith: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 131st overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 122.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Malik Willis: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 132nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 90.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Geno Smith has been on the field for 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 26 times and thrown 7.0 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 1 of 26 dropbacks and scrambled 2 times.

In Week 1 against TEN he completed 19 of 24 passes for 215 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 3 times for 10 yards.

Through Week 1, Malik Willis has been on the field for 100 percent of MIA snaps, dropped back 37 times and thrown 11.4 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 9 of 37 dropbacks and scrambled 5 times.

In Week 1 against LV he completed 15 of 27 passes for 220 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 6 times for 39 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Geno Smith played 15 games and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He threw for 3025 yards on 448 attempts with 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 29.9 attempts a game at 6.8 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Malik Willis played 4 games and scored 51.2 PPR points, 12.8 a game, finishing QB45.

He threw for 422 yards on 35 attempts with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and ran for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns.

That came to 8.8 attempts a game at 12.1 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 10 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Geno Smith was available for 11 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Malik Willis scored 12.8 PPR points a game and Geno Smith 12.7, 0.1 a game between them.

Geno Smith finished QB23 that year and Malik Willis QB45.

Geno Smith had 413 more pass attempts than Malik Willis, 448 to 35.

Geno Smith had 2603 more passing yards than Malik Willis, 3025 to 422.

Their snap share this season is the same, 100 percent each.

Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.

Byes and availability

Geno Smith is off in Week 13 and Malik Willis in Week 6, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.1 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.