Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Geno Smith in Week 9?

The market-based projections

Patrick Mahomes's market-based projection is 21.2 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 10 market sources. That is the 7th highest figure of the 225 players with a market-based projection.

Geno Smith's market-based projection is 14.0 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 8 market sources. That is the 53rd highest figure of the 225 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Patrick Mahomes, and the board ranks him 48th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Geno Smith, and the board ranks him 131st overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 8

Through Week 8, Patrick Mahomes has been on the field for 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 254 times and thrown 5.8 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 41 of 254 dropbacks and scrambled 13 times.

In Week 6 against LAC he completed 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 3 times for 19 yards.

In Week 7 against SEA he completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 2 times for 14 yards.

In Week 8 against DEN he completed 30 of 41 passes for 321 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 6 yards.

Through Week 8, Geno Smith has been on the field for 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 272 times and thrown 7.9 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 46 of 272 dropbacks and scrambled 11 times.

In Week 6 against NE he completed 20 of 30 passes for 252 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 1 time for 0 yards.

In Week 7 against MIA he completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 1 time for 1 yards.

In Week 8 against LV he completed 20 of 32 passes for 290 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 1 time for 4 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes played 14 games and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He threw for 3587 yards on 502 attempts with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

That came to 35.9 attempts a game at 7.1 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Geno Smith played 15 games and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He threw for 3025 yards on 448 attempts with 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 29.9 attempts a game at 6.8 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Geno Smith was available for 1 game more.

Head to head

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes scored 21.2 PPR points a game and Geno Smith 12.7, 8.5 a game between them.

Patrick Mahomes finished QB11 that year and Geno Smith QB23.

Patrick Mahomes had 54 more pass attempts than Geno Smith, 502 to 448.

Patrick Mahomes had 562 more passing yards than Geno Smith, 3587 to 3025.

Their snap share this season is the same, 100 percent each.

Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.

Byes and availability

Patrick Mahomes is off in Week 5 and Geno Smith in Week 13, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

7.2 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.