Should I start Sam Darnold or Justin Jefferson in Week 8?

The market-based projections

Sam Darnold's market-based projection is 16.2 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 11 market sources. That is the 9th highest figure of the 198 players with a market-based projection.

Justin Jefferson's market-based projection is 15.8 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 13 market sources. That is the 11th highest figure of the 198 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Sam Darnold, and the board ranks him 12th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 26.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Justin Jefferson, and the board ranks him 13th overall on the rest of his evidence.

By format he goes standard: ADP 4; 2QB: ADP 15.

This season through Week 7

Through Week 7, Sam Darnold has been on the field for 89 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 196 times and thrown 7.0 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 39 of 196 dropbacks and scrambled 7 times.

In Week 5 against SF he completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions and ran 1 time for 5 yards.

In Week 6 against DEN he completed 27 of 49 passes for 278 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and ran 2 times for 19 yards.

In Week 7 against KC he completed 20 of 28 passes for 257 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 2 times for 17 yards.

Through Week 7, Justin Jefferson has been on the field for 77 percent of MIN snaps, drawn 26 percent of the targets and had 16 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 16 of the offence's 47 third down targets, had 0 of its 3 chances inside the five and seen 3 of its 11 two minute targets.

His 31 targets have averaged 10.9 air yards.

In Week 3 against TB he caught 2 of 2 targets for 32 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against NO he carried 1 time for -11 yards, caught 6 of 7 targets for 79 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 7 against IND he caught 4 of 7 targets for 44 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Sam Darnold played 17 games and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He threw for 4048 yards on 477 attempts with 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 28.1 attempts a game at 9 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Justin Jefferson played 17 games and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.

He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets.

That came to 8.3 targets a game, a 60 percent catch rate and 13 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 17 games that season.

Side by side

In 2025 Sam Darnold scored 14.7 PPR points a game and Justin Jefferson 11.9, 2.8 a game between them.

Sam Darnold finished QB13 and Justin Jefferson WR21, which are two different ladders.

Sam Darnold is a quarterback and Justin Jefferson a wide receiver, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Sam Darnold is off in Week 11 and Justin Jefferson in Week 6, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.4 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.