Should I start Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes in Week 7?

The market-based projections

Matthew Stafford's market-based projection is 16.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 24th highest figure of the 216 players with a market-based projection.

Patrick Mahomes's market-based projection is 16.3 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 27th highest figure of the 216 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Matthew Stafford, and the board ranks him 87th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Patrick Mahomes, and the board ranks him 94th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 6

Through Week 6, Matthew Stafford has been on the field for 98 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 260 times and thrown 8.3 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 40 of 260 dropbacks and scrambled 4 times.

In Week 4 against PHI he completed 32 of 51 passes for 317 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and ran 2 times for 11 yards.

In Week 5 against BUF he completed 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards and threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

In Week 6 against ARI he completed 25 of 33 passes for 222 yards and threw 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Through Week 6, Patrick Mahomes has been on the field for 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 174 times and thrown 6.3 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 24 of 174 dropbacks and scrambled 10 times.

In Week 3 against MIA he completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 1 time for 1 yards.

In Week 4 against LV he completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 1 time for 1 yards.

In Week 6 against LAC he completed 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 3 times for 19 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Matthew Stafford played 17 games and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He threw for 4707 yards on 597 attempts with 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 35.1 attempts a game at 7.9 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes played 14 games and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He threw for 3587 yards on 502 attempts with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

That came to 35.9 attempts a game at 7.1 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Matthew Stafford was available for 3 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes scored 21.2 PPR points a game and Matthew Stafford 21.1, 0.1 a game between them.

Matthew Stafford finished QB3 that year and Patrick Mahomes QB11.

Matthew Stafford had 95 more pass attempts than Patrick Mahomes, 597 to 502.

Matthew Stafford had 1120 more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes, 4707 to 3587.

This season Patrick Mahomes holds the bigger snap share, 100 percent against 98 percent.

Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.

Byes and availability

Matthew Stafford is off in Week 11 and Patrick Mahomes in Week 5, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.2 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.