Start Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes? Week 7

Updated Oct 22, 11:11 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Matthew Stafford over Patrick Mahomes

Start

Matthew Stafford

QB · LAR · at LV

Market projects: 16.5; fantasy pts
LV D vs QB: 21.2; 6th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 63 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 6

Sit

Patrick Mahomes

QB · KC · at SEA

Market projects: 15.8; fantasy pts
SEA D vs QB: 12.3; 2nd fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 14 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Matthew Stafford for Patrick Mahomes?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 191 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 11 games), Matthew Stafford 165 (16.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Patrick Mahomes, 16.5 to 15.9 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Matthew Stafford over Patrick Mahomes in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Matthew Stafford at 16.5 points and Patrick Mahomes at 15.8, a gap of 0.7. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Matthew Stafford at ADP 75 and Patrick Mahomes at 107.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.5 fantasy points for Matthew Stafford, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Matthew Stafford is 271 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing yards and under 0.1 rushing touchdowns (12, 14, 3 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 15.9 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Patrick Mahomes is 219 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 15 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 14, 12 and 13 market sources).

That puts Matthew Stafford 0.7 points ahead of Patrick Mahomes on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Matthew Stafford and LAR visit LV on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

LV allowed 21.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 6th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 254 yards and 2.2 touchdowns a game against LV, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

Patrick Mahomes and KC visit SEA on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

SEA allowed 12.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 157 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against SEA, with 1.2 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Matthew Stafford has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Matthew Stafford is not on the injury report.

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Matthew Stafford played 98 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 260 times and threw an average of 8.3 air yards per attempt.

Matthew Stafford, Week 3 against DEN: 86 of 86 snaps, 30 of 53 passes for 390 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 13 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 4 against PHI: 84 of 84 snaps, 32 of 51 passes for 317 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 11 yards.

Matthew Stafford, Week 5 against BUF: 82 of 82 snaps, 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Matthew Stafford, Week 6 against ARI: 58 of 58 snaps, 25 of 33 passes for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Through Week 6, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 174 times and threw an average of 6.3 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 2 against IND: 80 of 80 snaps, 32 of 47 passes for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 3 against MIA: 52 of 52 snaps, 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 4 against LV: 60 of 60 snaps, 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 6 against LAC: 61 of 61 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 19 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Matthew Stafford played 17 games for LAR and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He completed 388 of 597 passes for 4707 yards, 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Matthew Stafford for Patrick Mahomes?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 191 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 11 games), Matthew Stafford 165 (16.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Patrick Mahomes, 16.5 to 15.9 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game.
Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Matthew Stafford?
No. Keep Patrick Mahomes: he projects 191 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 11 games), Matthew Stafford 165 (16.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Matthew Stafford over Patrick Mahomes, 16.5 to 15.9 projected PPR points.

Should I drop Matthew Stafford?