Aaron Gordon vs John Collins: who to start in Week 1
Aaron Gordon plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 75.0 projected fantasy points to 58.2 for Aaron Gordon. Over the season, Aaron Gordon leads in points leagues (29.1 fantasy points a game to 25.0) and John Collins in 9-cat leagues (86th against 88th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 8:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #94
- 29.1 FP/G, slot 8.10, $11
- 9-cat leagues
- #88
- -1.1 z, slot 8.04, $9
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #133
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.01, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #86
- -1.0 z, slot 8.02, $10
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Aaron Gordon. 29.1 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 94th on our board to 133rd.
9-cat leagues: John Collins instead, -1.0 in summed z-scores against -1.1 (86th to 88th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Aaron Gordon is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, 3PM and TO) and John Collins in 4 (STL, BLK, FG% and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Aaron Gordon produces more: 37.4 fantasy points to 33.1, on 28.0 minutes a night against 27.2. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Aaron Gordon plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 75.0 projected fantasy points to 58.2 for Aaron Gordon.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Aaron Gordon | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 29.1 | 25.0 |
| Minutes | 28.0 | 27.2 |
| PointsPTS | 16.4 | 13.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| AssistsAST | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 50.6% | 55.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 77.2% | 76.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 36 | 69 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Aaron Gordon | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 37.4 | 33.1 |
| Points | 21.1 | 18.1 |
| Rebounds | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Assists | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Threes | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Aaron Gordon | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.0 | -0.5 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.0 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | -0.9 | -0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.8 | +0.0 |
| Threes3PM | +0.2 | -0.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.4 | +1.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.9 | +0.7 |
| Total | -1.1 | -1.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting steals, blocks, field goal percentage and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Aaron Gordon.
| Punt | Aaron Gordon | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.1 (#118) | -0.6 (#84) |
| REB | -1.3 (#112) | -0.9 (#91) |
| AST | -0.7 (#81) | +0.2 (#47) |
| STL | -0.2 (#69) | -0.6 (#76) |
| BLK | -0.5 (#75) | -1.2 (#99) |
| 3PM | -1.3 (#107) | -0.9 (#90) |
| FG% | -1.9 (#117) | -2.3 (#136) |
| FT% | -0.8 (#86) | -0.9 (#89) |
| TO | -2.1 (#112) | -1.8 (#105) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Aaron Gordon: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
- John Collins: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI).
Recent games
- Aaron Gordon: 35.7 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 29.1 on the board.
- John Collins: 25.7 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Aaron Gordon playing tonight? · Is John Collins playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Aaron Gordon, John Collins
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Aaron Gordon or John Collins?
Points leagues: Aaron Gordon. 29.1 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 94th on our board to 133rd. 9-cat leagues: John Collins instead, -1.0 in summed z-scores against -1.1 (86th to 88th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Aaron Gordon or John Collins?
Category by category, Aaron Gordon is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, 3PM and TO) and John Collins in 4 (STL, BLK, FG% and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Aaron Gordon or John Collins?
Aaron Gordon plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 75.0 projected fantasy points to 58.2 for Aaron Gordon.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 8:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number