Aaron Wiggins vs Keon Ellis: who to start in Week 2
Aaron Wiggins plays 4 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Aaron Wiggins: 80.4 projected fantasy points to 48.7 for Keon Ellis. Over the season, Aaron Wiggins leads in points leagues (20.1 fantasy points a game to 16.2) and Keon Ellis in 9-cat leagues (182nd against 184th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 27, 2:32 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #201
- 20.1 FP/G, slot 17.09
- 9-cat leagues
- #184
- -3.3 z, slot 16.04
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #258
- 16.2 FP/G, slot 22.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #182
- -3.2 z, slot 16.02
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Aaron Wiggins. 20.1 fantasy points per game against 16.2, 201st on our board to 258th.
9-cat leagues: Keon Ellis instead, -3.2 in summed z-scores against -3.3 (182nd to 184th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Aaron Wiggins is ahead in 4 (PTS, REB, AST and 3PM) and Keon Ellis in 5 (STL, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Aaron Wiggins produces more: 31.6 fantasy points to 27.2, on 22.9 minutes a night against 21.5. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Aaron Wiggins plays 4 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Aaron Wiggins: 80.4 projected fantasy points to 48.7 for Keon Ellis.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Aaron Wiggins | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 20.1 | 16.2 |
| Minutes | 22.9 | 21.5 |
| PointsPTS | 10.7 | 6.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| AssistsAST | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| StealsSTL | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 45.8% | 45.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 73.0% | 72.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 65 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Aaron Wiggins | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 31.6 | 27.2 |
| Points | 16.9 | 11.4 |
| Rebounds | 4.9 | 3.1 |
| Assists | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Steals | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Threes | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.8 | 1.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Aaron Wiggins | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.0 | -1.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.2 | -1.7 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | +0.0 | +0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.1 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.9 | +1.5 |
| Total | -3.3 | -3.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting steals, blocks and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Aaron Wiggins.
| Punt | Aaron Wiggins | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.4 (#186) | -1.5 (#140) |
| REB | -2.3 (#153) | -1.6 (#119) |
| AST | -2.4 (#173) | -2.1 (#154) |
| STL | -3.4 (#200) | -4.1 (#246) |
| BLK | -2.9 (#167) | -3.3 (#181) |
| 3PM | -3.5 (#210) | -2.8 (#180) |
| FG% | -3.1 (#162) | -3.1 (#161) |
| FT% | -3.1 (#186) | -3.0 (#182) |
| TO | -4.3 (#185) | -4.8 (#204) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1)
- Aaron Wiggins: 4 games (Mon @HOU, Wed MIA, Thu CLE, Sat @NOP), 1 back-to-back.
- Keon Ellis: 3 games (Tue @BOS, Fri DET, Sun @IND).
Recent games
- Aaron Wiggins: 26.4 fantasy points a game over his last 4 of 2026-27, against 20.1 on the board.
- Keon Ellis: 21.3 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 16.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Aaron Wiggins playing tonight? · Is Keon Ellis playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Aaron Wiggins or Keon Ellis?
Points leagues: Aaron Wiggins. 20.1 fantasy points per game against 16.2, 201st on our board to 258th. 9-cat leagues: Keon Ellis instead, -3.2 in summed z-scores against -3.3 (182nd to 184th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Aaron Wiggins or Keon Ellis?
Category by category, Aaron Wiggins is ahead in 4 (PTS, REB, AST and 3PM) and Keon Ellis in 5 (STL, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 2, Aaron Wiggins or Keon Ellis?
Aaron Wiggins plays 4 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Aaron Wiggins: 80.4 projected fantasy points to 48.7 for Keon Ellis.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 27, 2026 at 2:32 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number