Brandon Ingram vs Trey Murphy III: who to start in Week 1
Brandon Ingram plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Trey Murphy III 3. For that week alone, start Trey Murphy III: 109.6 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Brandon Ingram. Over the season, Trey Murphy III leads in both formats: 36.5 fantasy points a game to 35.7, and 16th against 72nd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 8:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #44
- 35.7 FP/G, slot 4.08, $20
- 9-cat leagues
- #72
- -0.4 z, slot 6.12, $13
Out (Heel)
- Points leagues
- #41
- 36.5 FP/G, slot 4.05, $21
- 9-cat leagues
- #16
- +3.2 z, slot 2.04, $33
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Trey Murphy III. 36.5 fantasy points per game against 35.7, 41st on our board to 44th.
9-cat leagues: Trey Murphy III again, +3.2 in summed z-scores against -0.4 (16th to 72nd).
Category by category, Brandon Ingram is ahead in 3 (PTS, BLK and FG%) and Trey Murphy III in 4 (STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Brandon Ingram produces more: 38.0 fantasy points to 37.3, on 33.8 minutes a night against 35.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Brandon Ingram plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Trey Murphy III 3. For that week alone, start Trey Murphy III: 109.6 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Brandon Ingram.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Brandon Ingram | Trey Murphy III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 35.7 | 36.5 |
| Minutes | 33.8 | 35.3 |
| PointsPTS | 21.5 | 20.9 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| AssistsAST | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.7% | 46.6% |
| Free throw %FT% | 82.0% | 88.8% |
| TurnoversTO | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 77 | 66 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Brandon Ingram | Trey Murphy III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 38.0 | 37.3 |
| Points | 22.9 | 21.3 |
| Rebounds | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| Assists | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Blocks | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 1.9 | 3.2 |
| Turnovers | 2.6 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Brandon Ingram | Trey Murphy III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| AssistsAST | +0.0 | -0.0 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | +1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.1 | -0.7 |
| Threes3PM | +0.1 | +1.6 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.3 | -0.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.3 | +1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | -0.7 | +0.2 |
| Total | -0.4 | +3.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Trey Murphy III stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Brandon Ingram | Trey Murphy III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.4 (#122) | +2.4 (#12) |
| REB | -0.4 (#67) | +3.5 (#12) |
| AST | -0.6 (#77) | +3.1 (#13) |
| STL | +0.2 (#56) | +2.1 (#23) |
| BLK | -0.6 (#75) | +4.0 (#11) |
| 3PM | -0.7 (#85) | +1.5 (#33) |
| FG% | -0.3 (#67) | +4.1 (#13) |
| FT% | -0.9 (#89) | +2.1 (#24) |
| TO | +0.2 (#57) | +3.1 (#21) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Brandon Ingram: 3 games (Wed SAC, Fri @LAL, Sun @OKC), listed Out.
- Trey Murphy III: 3 games (Wed IND, Fri @UTA, Sat @DEN), 1 back-to-back.
Brandon Ingram or Trey Murphy III: the Week 1 start/sit call
Recent games
- Brandon Ingram: 33.0 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 35.7 on the board.
- Trey Murphy III: 17.3 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 36.5 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Brandon Ingram playing tonight? · Is Trey Murphy III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Brandon Ingram or Trey Murphy III?
Points leagues: Trey Murphy III. 36.5 fantasy points per game against 35.7, 41st on our board to 44th. 9-cat leagues: Trey Murphy III again, +3.2 in summed z-scores against -0.4 (16th to 72nd).
Who wins more categories, Brandon Ingram or Trey Murphy III?
Category by category, Brandon Ingram is ahead in 3 (PTS, BLK and FG%) and Trey Murphy III in 4 (STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Brandon Ingram or Trey Murphy III?
Brandon Ingram plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Trey Murphy III 3. For that week alone, start Trey Murphy III: 109.6 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Brandon Ingram.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 8:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number