Deandre Ayton vs Josh Giddey: who to start in Week 1
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Josh Giddey 3. For that week alone, start Josh Giddey: 119.8 projected fantasy points to 79.3 for Deandre Ayton. Over the season, Josh Giddey leads in points leagues (39.9 fantasy points a game to 26.4) and Deandre Ayton in 9-cat leagues (87th against 89th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 8:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #121
- 26.4 FP/G, slot 11.01, $6
- 9-cat leagues
- #87
- -1.0 z, slot 8.03, $10
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #29
- 39.9 FP/G, slot 3.05, $26
- 9-cat leagues
- #89
- -1.0 z, slot 8.05, $10
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Josh Giddey. 39.9 fantasy points per game against 26.4, 29th on our board to 121st.
9-cat leagues: Deandre Ayton instead, -1.0 in summed z-scores against -1.0 (87th to 89th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Deandre Ayton is ahead in 3 (BLK, FG% and TO) and Josh Giddey in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Josh Giddey produces more: 45.5 fantasy points to 36.0, on 31.6 minutes a night against 26.4. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Josh Giddey 3. For that week alone, start Josh Giddey: 119.8 projected fantasy points to 79.3 for Deandre Ayton.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Deandre Ayton | Josh Giddey |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 26.4 | 39.9 |
| Minutes | 26.4 | 31.6 |
| PointsPTS | 12.4 | 16.1 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.7 | 8.2 |
| AssistsAST | 0.8 | 9.0 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Field goal %FG% | 67.8% | 43.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 63.6% | 74.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 54 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Deandre Ayton | Josh Giddey |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 36.0 | 45.5 |
| Points | 16.8 | 18.3 |
| Rebounds | 10.5 | 9.4 |
| Assists | 1.0 | 10.2 |
| Steals | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Blocks | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.5 | 4.2 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Deandre Ayton | Josh Giddey |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.9 | +1.1 |
| AssistsAST | -1.5 | +2.7 |
| StealsSTL | -1.4 | -0.2 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.7 | -0.4 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | +0.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +2.6 | -1.2 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.0 | -0.7 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.0 | -2.4 |
| Total | -1.0 | -1.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting blocks, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Josh Giddey.
| Punt | Deandre Ayton | Josh Giddey |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.3 (#73) | -1.0 (#108) |
| REB | -2.1 (#139) | -2.4 (#156) |
| AST | +0.5 (#44) | -3.8 (#234) |
| STL | +0.3 (#55) | -0.9 (#89) |
| BLK | -2.0 (#130) | -0.8 (#81) |
| 3PM | +0.7 (#44) | -1.2 (#101) |
| FG% | -4.2 (#216) | -0.2 (#65) |
| FT% | -0.0 (#63) | -0.4 (#75) |
| TO | -2.2 (#113) | +1.3 (#42) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Deandre Ayton: 3 games (Wed MIL, Fri TOR, Sat @CHI), 1 back-to-back.
- Josh Giddey: 3 games (Wed @TOR, Fri @MIL, Sat WAS), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Deandre Ayton: 21.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 26.4 on the board.
- Josh Giddey: 14.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 39.9 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Deandre Ayton playing tonight? · Is Josh Giddey playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Josh Giddey
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Deandre Ayton or Josh Giddey?
Points leagues: Josh Giddey. 39.9 fantasy points per game against 26.4, 29th on our board to 121st. 9-cat leagues: Deandre Ayton instead, -1.0 in summed z-scores against -1.0 (87th to 89th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Deandre Ayton or Josh Giddey?
Category by category, Deandre Ayton is ahead in 3 (BLK, FG% and TO) and Josh Giddey in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Deandre Ayton or Josh Giddey?
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Josh Giddey 3. For that week alone, start Josh Giddey: 119.8 projected fantasy points to 79.3 for Deandre Ayton.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 8:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number