Deandre Ayton vs Kelly Oubre Jr.: who to start in Week 1
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Kelly Oubre Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Deandre Ayton: 76.7 projected fantasy points to 75.5 for Kelly Oubre Jr.. Over the season, Deandre Ayton leads in both formats: 25.6 fantasy points a game to 25.2, and 98th against 125th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 4:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #129
- 25.6 FP/G, slot 11.09, $5
- 9-cat leagues
- #98
- -1.2 z, slot 9.02, $8
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #131
- 25.2 FP/G, slot 11.11, $5
- 9-cat leagues
- #125
- -2.0 z, slot 11.05, $4
The call
Points leagues: Deandre Ayton. 25.6 fantasy points per game against 25.2, 129th on our board to 131st.
9-cat leagues: Deandre Ayton again, -1.2 in summed z-scores against -2.0 (98th to 125th).
Category by category, Deandre Ayton is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Kelly Oubre Jr. in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Deandre Ayton produces more: 35.7 fantasy points to 29.7, on 25.8 minutes a night against 30.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Kelly Oubre Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Deandre Ayton: 76.7 projected fantasy points to 75.5 for Kelly Oubre Jr..
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Deandre Ayton | Kelly Oubre Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.6 | 25.2 |
| Minutes | 25.8 | 30.5 |
| PointsPTS | 11.9 | 12.9 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.6 | 4.7 |
| AssistsAST | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Field goal %FG% | 68.3% | 44.4% |
| Free throw %FT% | 63.6% | 76.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 50 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Deandre Ayton | Kelly Oubre Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 35.7 | 29.7 |
| Points | 16.6 | 15.2 |
| Rebounds | 10.7 | 5.5 |
| Assists | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Steals | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Blocks | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Threes | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Deandre Ayton | Kelly Oubre Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.9 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -1.4 | -1.0 |
| StealsSTL | -1.4 | +0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.6 | -0.4 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | -0.0 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +2.6 | -0.7 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.0 | +0.7 |
| Total | -1.2 | -2.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Kelly Oubre Jr..
| Punt | Deandre Ayton | Kelly Oubre Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.5 (#80) | -1.4 (#128) |
| REB | -2.3 (#150) | -1.6 (#124) |
| AST | +0.1 (#49) | -1.1 (#103) |
| STL | +0.1 (#59) | -2.8 (#178) |
| BLK | -2.1 (#140) | -1.7 (#121) |
| 3PM | +0.4 (#49) | -1.9 (#134) |
| FG% | -4.5 (#234) | -1.5 (#99) |
| FT% | -0.3 (#70) | -1.7 (#128) |
| TO | -2.4 (#120) | -2.8 (#132) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Deandre Ayton: 3 games (Wed MIL, Fri TOR, Sat @CHI), 1 back-to-back.
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3 games (Wed @NOP, Fri DAL, Sun @BKN).
Recent games
- Deandre Ayton: 16.8 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.6 on the board.
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: 13.6 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Deandre Ayton playing tonight? · Is Kelly Oubre Jr. playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Deandre Ayton or Kelly Oubre Jr.?
Points leagues: Deandre Ayton. 25.6 fantasy points per game against 25.2, 129th on our board to 131st. 9-cat leagues: Deandre Ayton again, -1.2 in summed z-scores against -2.0 (98th to 125th).
Who wins more categories, Deandre Ayton or Kelly Oubre Jr.?
Category by category, Deandre Ayton is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Kelly Oubre Jr. in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Deandre Ayton or Kelly Oubre Jr.?
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Kelly Oubre Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Deandre Ayton: 76.7 projected fantasy points to 75.5 for Kelly Oubre Jr..
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 4:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number