Deni Avdija vs Ryan Rollins: who to start in Week 1
Deni Avdija plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ryan Rollins 3. For that week alone, start Ryan Rollins: 98.9 projected fantasy points to 85.4 for Deni Avdija. Over the season, Deni Avdija leads in points leagues (42.7 fantasy points a game to 33.0) and Ryan Rollins in 9-cat leagues (63rd against 65th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 2:29 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #16
- 42.7 FP/G, slot 2.04, $31
- 9-cat leagues
- #65
- -0.2 z, slot 6.05, $14
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #59
- 33.0 FP/G, slot 5.11, $16
- 9-cat leagues
- #63
- -0.2 z, slot 6.03, $14
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Deni Avdija. 42.7 fantasy points per game against 33.0, 16th on our board to 59th.
9-cat leagues: Ryan Rollins instead, -0.2 in summed z-scores against -0.2 (63rd to 65th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Deni Avdija is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, BLK and FG%) and Ryan Rollins in 4 (STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Deni Avdija produces more: 46.6 fantasy points to 37.9, on 33.0 minutes a night against 31.4. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Deni Avdija plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ryan Rollins 3. For that week alone, start Ryan Rollins: 98.9 projected fantasy points to 85.4 for Deni Avdija.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Deni Avdija | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 42.7 | 33.0 |
| Minutes | 33.0 | 31.4 |
| PointsPTS | 24.0 | 16.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.1 | 4.8 |
| AssistsAST | 6.5 | 5.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 46.3% | 45.4% |
| Free throw %FT% | 79.0% | 77.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 66 | 74 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Deni Avdija | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 46.6 | 37.9 |
| Points | 26.1 | 18.8 |
| Rebounds | 7.7 | 5.5 |
| Assists | 7.1 | 6.2 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Turnovers | 4.0 | 3.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Deni Avdija | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +1.3 | +0.0 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.6 | -0.4 |
| AssistsAST | +1.4 | +0.9 |
| StealsSTL | -0.5 | +0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| Threes3PM | +0.2 | +0.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.6 | -0.7 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | -2.3 | -0.9 |
| Total | -0.2 | -0.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting steals, threes, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Deni Avdija.
| Punt | Deni Avdija | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#140) | -0.2 (#64) |
| REB | -1.0 (#93) | +0.3 (#51) |
| AST | -1.7 (#133) | -1.2 (#111) |
| STL | +0.2 (#56) | -1.1 (#99) |
| BLK | -0.1 (#61) | +0.2 (#51) |
| 3PM | -0.5 (#75) | -1.0 (#96) |
| FG% | -0.1 (#66) | +0.5 (#50) |
| FT% | -0.1 (#61) | -0.1 (#62) |
| TO | +2.1 (#35) | +0.7 (#49) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Deni Avdija: 2 games (Wed PHX, Fri @SAC).
- Ryan Rollins: 3 games (Wed @WAS, Fri CHI, Sat @PHI), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Deni Avdija: 41.7 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 42.7 on the board.
- Ryan Rollins: 27.0 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 33.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Deni Avdija playing tonight? · Is Ryan Rollins playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Deni Avdija, Ryan Rollins
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Deni Avdija or Ryan Rollins?
Points leagues: Deni Avdija. 42.7 fantasy points per game against 33.0, 16th on our board to 59th. 9-cat leagues: Ryan Rollins instead, -0.2 in summed z-scores against -0.2 (63rd to 65th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Deni Avdija or Ryan Rollins?
Category by category, Deni Avdija is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, BLK and FG%) and Ryan Rollins in 4 (STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Deni Avdija or Ryan Rollins?
Deni Avdija plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ryan Rollins 3. For that week alone, start Ryan Rollins: 98.9 projected fantasy points to 85.4 for Deni Avdija.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 2:29 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number