James Harden vs Paolo Banchero: who to start in Week 1
James Harden plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paolo Banchero 3. For that week alone, start Paolo Banchero: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 84.8 for James Harden. Over the season, James Harden leads in both formats: 42.4 fantasy points a game to 41.7, and 22nd against 90th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 8:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #18
- 42.4 FP/G, slot 2.06, $30
- 9-cat leagues
- #22
- +2.6 z, slot 2.10, $30
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #20
- 41.7 FP/G, slot 2.08, $29
- 9-cat leagues
- #90
- -1.1 z, slot 8.06, $10
The call
Points leagues: James Harden. 42.4 fantasy points per game against 41.7, 18th on our board to 20th.
9-cat leagues: James Harden again, +2.6 in summed z-scores against -1.1 (22nd to 90th).
Category by category, James Harden is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Paolo Banchero in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, James Harden produces more: 43.8 fantasy points to 42.7, on 34.8 minutes a night against 35.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
James Harden plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paolo Banchero 3. For that week alone, start Paolo Banchero: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 84.8 for James Harden.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | James Harden | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 42.4 | 41.7 |
| Minutes | 34.8 | 35.1 |
| PointsPTS | 23.6 | 23.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.8 | 8.3 |
| AssistsAST | 8.0 | 5.5 |
| StealsSTL | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 43.4% | 47.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 88.4% | 77.2% |
| TurnoversTO | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 70 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | James Harden | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 43.8 | 42.7 |
| Points | 24.4 | 23.6 |
| Rebounds | 5.0 | 8.5 |
| Assists | 8.2 | 5.6 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| Turnovers | 3.6 | 3.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | James Harden | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.4 | +1.1 |
| AssistsAST | +2.2 | +0.9 |
| StealsSTL | +0.3 | -0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Threes3PM | +1.5 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +2.0 | -0.7 |
| TurnoversTO | -2.1 | -1.8 |
| Total | +2.6 | -1.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: James Harden stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | James Harden | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +1.4 (#28) | -2.2 (#175) |
| REB | +3.2 (#16) | -2.6 (#173) |
| AST | +0.3 (#46) | -2.1 (#153) |
| STL | +2.3 (#21) | -0.3 (#70) |
| BLK | +3.3 (#16) | -1.0 (#87) |
| 3PM | +1.0 (#38) | -0.7 (#87) |
| FG% | +4.4 (#11) | -1.5 (#99) |
| FT% | +0.5 (#49) | -0.5 (#77) |
| TO | +4.8 (#12) | +0.7 (#51) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- James Harden: 2 games (Thu @PHI, Sat BKN).
- Paolo Banchero: 3 games (Wed ATL, Fri MIN, Sun @NYK).
Recent games
- James Harden: 37.9 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 42.4 on the board.
- Paolo Banchero: 55.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 41.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is James Harden playing tonight? · Is Paolo Banchero playing tonight?
Rookie cards: James Harden, Paolo Banchero
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, James Harden or Paolo Banchero?
Points leagues: James Harden. 42.4 fantasy points per game against 41.7, 18th on our board to 20th. 9-cat leagues: James Harden again, +2.6 in summed z-scores against -1.1 (22nd to 90th).
Who wins more categories, James Harden or Paolo Banchero?
Category by category, James Harden is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Paolo Banchero in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, James Harden or Paolo Banchero?
James Harden plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paolo Banchero 3. For that week alone, start Paolo Banchero: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 84.8 for James Harden.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 8:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number