James Harden vs Paul George: who to start in Week 1
James Harden plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul George 2. For that week alone, start James Harden: 84.8 projected fantasy points to 70.7 for Paul George. Over the season, James Harden leads in points leagues (42.4 fantasy points a game to 35.3) and Paul George in 9-cat leagues (20th against 22nd). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 4:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #18
- 42.4 FP/G, slot 2.06, $30
- 9-cat leagues
- #22
- +2.6 z, slot 2.10, $30
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #45
- 35.3 FP/G, slot 4.09, $19
- 9-cat leagues
- #20
- +2.8 z, slot 2.08, $31
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: James Harden. 42.4 fantasy points per game against 35.3, 18th on our board to 45th.
9-cat leagues: Paul George instead, +2.8 in summed z-scores against +2.6 (20th to 22nd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, James Harden is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Paul George in 4 (REB, STL, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, James Harden produces more: 43.8 fantasy points to 41.5, on 34.8 minutes a night against 30.7. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
James Harden plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul George 2. For that week alone, start James Harden: 84.8 projected fantasy points to 70.7 for Paul George.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | James Harden | Paul George |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 42.4 | 35.3 |
| Minutes | 34.8 | 30.7 |
| PointsPTS | 23.6 | 18.6 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| AssistsAST | 8.0 | 3.6 |
| StealsSTL | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Threes3PM | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 43.4% | 45.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 88.4% | 82.8% |
| TurnoversTO | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 70 | 37 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | James Harden | Paul George |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 43.8 | 41.5 |
| Points | 24.4 | 21.8 |
| Rebounds | 5.0 | 6.2 |
| Assists | 8.2 | 4.2 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Turnovers | 3.6 | 2.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | James Harden | Paul George |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +1.2 | +0.4 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | +2.2 | -0.0 |
| StealsSTL | +0.3 | +2.4 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Threes3PM | +1.5 | +1.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.4 | -0.9 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +2.0 | +0.3 |
| TurnoversTO | -2.1 | +0.1 |
| Total | +2.6 | +2.8 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, steals, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to James Harden.
| Punt | James Harden | Paul George |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +1.4 (#28) | +2.3 (#14) |
| REB | +3.2 (#16) | +3.1 (#19) |
| AST | +0.3 (#46) | +2.7 (#16) |
| STL | +2.3 (#21) | +0.3 (#54) |
| BLK | +3.3 (#16) | +3.4 (#14) |
| 3PM | +1.0 (#38) | +1.3 (#34) |
| FG% | +4.4 (#11) | +3.8 (#15) |
| FT% | +0.5 (#49) | +2.4 (#20) |
| TO | +4.8 (#12) | +2.8 (#23) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- James Harden: 2 games (Thu @PHI, Sat BKN).
- Paul George: 2 games (Tue @DET, Fri NYK).
Recent games
- James Harden: 37.9 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 42.4 on the board.
- Paul George: 60.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 35.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is James Harden playing tonight? · Is Paul George playing tonight?
Rookie cards: James Harden, Paul George
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, James Harden or Paul George?
Points leagues: James Harden. 42.4 fantasy points per game against 35.3, 18th on our board to 45th. 9-cat leagues: Paul George instead, +2.8 in summed z-scores against +2.6 (20th to 22nd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, James Harden or Paul George?
Category by category, James Harden is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Paul George in 4 (REB, STL, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, James Harden or Paul George?
James Harden plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul George 2. For that week alone, start James Harden: 84.8 projected fantasy points to 70.7 for Paul George.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 4:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number