Wendell Carter Jr. vs Zion Williamson: who to start in Week 1
Wendell Carter Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Zion Williamson 3. For that week alone, start Zion Williamson: 105.7 projected fantasy points to 81.0 for Wendell Carter Jr.. Over the season, Zion Williamson leads in points leagues (35.2 fantasy points a game to 27.0) and Wendell Carter Jr. in 9-cat leagues (83rd against 84th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 2:56 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #114
- 27.0 FP/G, slot 10.06, $7
- 9-cat leagues
- #83
- -0.8 z, slot 7.11, $11
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #46
- 35.2 FP/G, slot 4.10, $19
- 9-cat leagues
- #84
- -0.9 z, slot 7.12, $11
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Zion Williamson. 35.2 fantasy points per game against 27.0, 46th on our board to 114th.
9-cat leagues: Wendell Carter Jr. instead, -0.8 in summed z-scores against -0.9 (83rd to 84th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Wendell Carter Jr. is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Zion Williamson in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Zion Williamson produces more: 42.5 fantasy points to 33.0, on 29.8 minutes a night against 29.4. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Wendell Carter Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Zion Williamson 3. For that week alone, start Zion Williamson: 105.7 projected fantasy points to 81.0 for Wendell Carter Jr..
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Wendell Carter Jr. | Zion Williamson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 27.0 | 35.2 |
| Minutes | 29.4 | 29.8 |
| PointsPTS | 12.5 | 21.1 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.4 | 5.5 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 3.2 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Field goal %FG% | 53.4% | 58.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 81.2% | 73.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 78 | 62 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Wendell Carter Jr. | Zion Williamson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.0 | 42.5 |
| Points | 15.2 | 25.4 |
| Rebounds | 9.0 | 6.7 |
| Assists | 2.3 | 3.9 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Blocks | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Threes | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| Turnovers | 1.5 | 2.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Wendell Carter Jr. | Zion Williamson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.7 | +0.8 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.7 | -0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | +0.2 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Threes3PM | -0.7 | -1.5 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.6 | +2.2 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -1.6 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.8 | -0.3 |
| Total | -0.8 | -0.9 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks, threes, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Zion Williamson.
| Punt | Wendell Carter Jr. | Zion Williamson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.2 (#66) | -1.7 (#146) |
| REB | -1.7 (#122) | -1.2 (#103) |
| AST | +0.1 (#53) | -0.7 (#84) |
| STL | -0.2 (#68) | -1.2 (#101) |
| BLK | -0.9 (#83) | -0.8 (#79) |
| 3PM | -0.1 (#67) | +0.6 (#46) |
| FG% | -1.8 (#112) | -4.0 (#208) |
| FT% | -1.0 (#91) | +0.6 (#47) |
| TO | -1.8 (#103) | -0.6 (#71) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Wendell Carter Jr.: 3 games (Wed ATL, Fri MIN, Sun @NYK).
- Zion Williamson: 3 games (Wed IND, Fri @UTA, Sat @DEN), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Wendell Carter Jr.: 33.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 27.0 on the board.
- Zion Williamson: 30.5 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 35.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Wendell Carter Jr. playing tonight? · Is Zion Williamson playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Zion Williamson
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Wendell Carter Jr. or Zion Williamson?
Points leagues: Zion Williamson. 35.2 fantasy points per game against 27.0, 46th on our board to 114th. 9-cat leagues: Wendell Carter Jr. instead, -0.8 in summed z-scores against -0.9 (83rd to 84th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Wendell Carter Jr. or Zion Williamson?
Category by category, Wendell Carter Jr. is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Zion Williamson in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Wendell Carter Jr. or Zion Williamson?
Wendell Carter Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Zion Williamson 3. For that week alone, start Zion Williamson: 105.7 projected fantasy points to 81.0 for Wendell Carter Jr..
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 2:56 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number