Start Kaelon Black or Aaron Jones Sr.? Week 10

Our Week 10 call

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Kaelon Black in Week 10.

Market-based projections have Aaron Jones Sr. at 7.0 points and Kaelon Black at 7.4, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Aaron Jones Sr. still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 110 against 207, and that outweighs a gap this size. Kaelon Black's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 7.4 fantasy points for Kaelon Black, with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Kaelon Black is 34 rushing yards and 0.2 touchdowns (10 and 8 market sources).

Player markets imply 7.0 fantasy points for Aaron Jones Sr., with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Aaron Jones Sr. is 28 rushing yards, 10 receiving yards, 1-2 receptions and 0.3 touchdowns (8, 7, 7 and 6 market sources).

That puts Kaelon Black 0.4 points ahead of Aaron Jones Sr. on the market projections.

Week 10 matchups

Kaelon Black and SF visit DAL on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

DAL allowed 26.5 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 8 games, the 4th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 116 yards and a touchdown a game against DAL and caught passes for 29 more yards.

Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN visit GB on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

GB allowed 25.0 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 8 games, the 7th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 94 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against GB and caught passes for 34 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Kaelon Black has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Kaelon Black is not on the injury report.

Aaron Jones Sr. is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 10

Through Week 9, Kaelon Black played 29 percent of SF snaps, took 30 percent of the carries, drew 3 percent of the targets and had 14 percent of the red zone chances.

Kaelon Black, Week 5 against SEA: 11 of 60 snaps, 6 carries for 16 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Kaelon Black, Week 6 against WAS: 14 of 62 snaps, 8 carries for 34 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 3 yards.

Kaelon Black, Week 7 against ATL: 31 of 66 snaps, 12 carries for 63 yards, 3 targets and 1 catch for -4 yards, 1 touchdown.

Kaelon Black, Week 9 against LV: 18 of 73 snaps, 11 carries for 70 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Through Week 9, Aaron Jones Sr. played 32 percent of MIN snaps, took 32 percent of the carries, drew 5 percent of the targets and had 18 percent of the red zone chances.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 7 against IND: 15 of 59 snaps, 8 carries for 26 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 0 yards.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 8 against DET: 21 of 53 snaps, 5 carries for 22 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 9 against BUF: 5 carries for 16 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 10 calls

• Start Alvin Kamara over Kaelon Black.
• Start Kaelon Black over Austin Ekeler.
• Start Blake Corum over Kaelon Black.
• Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Alvin Kamara.
• Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Austin Ekeler.
• Start Blake Corum over Aaron Jones Sr..