Start Aaron Rodgers or Baker Mayfield? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 3:51 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Paris, set your lineup before then.

Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.6; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 29 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Sit

Aaron Rodgers

QB · PIT · at NO

Market projects: 15.2; fantasy pts
NO D vs QB: 18.5; 14th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 80 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 99%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Aaron Rodgers for Baker Mayfield?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 159 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.9 a game over 10 games), Aaron Rodgers 145 (14.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers, 16.6 to 15.2 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.6 points and Aaron Rodgers at 15.2, a gap of 1.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Baker Mayfield's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Baker Mayfield at ADP 133 and Aaron Rodgers at 231. Market coverage on Baker Mayfield is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.6 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 215 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (3, 4 and 6 market sources).

Player markets imply 15.2 fantasy points for Aaron Rodgers, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Aaron Rodgers is 234 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing yards and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (13, 14, 6 and 13 market sources).

That puts Baker Mayfield 1.4 points ahead of Aaron Rodgers on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Aaron Rodgers and PIT visit NO on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

NO allowed 18.5 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 14th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 256 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game against NO, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Aaron Rodgers is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Through Week 6, Aaron Rodgers played 99 percent of PIT snaps, dropped back 252 times and threw an average of 7.7 air yards per attempt.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 3 against CIN: 62 of 62 snaps, 19 of 33 passes for 292 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 12 yards.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 4 against CLE: 72 of 72 snaps, 22 of 40 passes for 299 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 5 against IND: 58 of 60 snaps, 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 6 yards.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 6 against TB: 79 of 79 snaps, 33 of 47 passes for 253 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Aaron Rodgers played 16 games for PIT and scored 234.1 PPR points, 14.6 a game, finishing QB18.

He completed 327 of 498 passes for 3322 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 61 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Aaron Rodgers for Baker Mayfield?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 159 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.9 a game over 10 games), Aaron Rodgers 145 (14.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers, 16.6 to 15.2 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Aaron Rodgers?
No. Keep Baker Mayfield: he projects 159 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.9 a game over 10 games), Aaron Rodgers 145 (14.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers, 16.6 to 15.2 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.