Start Bryce Young or Baker Mayfield? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 9:46 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Mayfield projects lower, 16.6 to 18.0, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 133 for Mayfield, 212 for Young.

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.6; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 29 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Sit

Bryce Young

QB · CAR · vs TB

Market projects: 18.0; fantasy pts
TB D vs QB: 15.3; 10th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 60 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 97%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Bryce Young?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Bryce Young projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Baker Mayfield 159 (15.9 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Bryce Young. So make the move after his Week 7 game. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Bryce Young in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.6 points and Bryce Young at 18.0, a gap of 1.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Baker Mayfield still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 133 against 212, and that outweighs a gap this size. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Market coverage on Baker Mayfield is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 18.0 fantasy points for Bryce Young, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Bryce Young is 252 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (7, 7 and 9 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.6 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 215 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (4, 5 and 8 market sources).

That puts Bryce Young 1.4 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Bryce Young and CAR host TB on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TB allowed 15.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 10th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 238 yards and 1-2 touchdowns a game against TB, with an interception a game.

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Bryce Young is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Bryce Young played 97 percent of CAR snaps, dropped back 217 times and threw an average of 9.2 air yards per attempt.

Bryce Young, Week 2 against ATL: 62 of 66 snaps, 23 of 36 passes for 287 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 6 yards.

Bryce Young, Week 3 against CLE: 77 of 77 snaps, 26 of 47 passes for 291 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception.

Bryce Young, Week 4 against DET: 75 of 75 snaps, 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 7 yards.

Bryce Young, Week 6 against PHI: 79 of 79 snaps, 20 of 39 passes for 281 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 8 yards.

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Bryce Young played 16 games for CAR and scored 229.0 PPR points, 14.3 a game, finishing QB19.

He completed 304 of 478 passes for 3011 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 54 times for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Bryce Young?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Bryce Young projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Baker Mayfield 159 (15.9 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Bryce Young. So make the move after his Week 7 game. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Bryce Young for Baker Mayfield?
No. Keep Bryce Young: he projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Baker Mayfield 159 (15.9 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Bryce Young. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.