Should I drop Bo Nix for Baker Mayfield?

Not on these numbers alone. Bo Nix projects 165 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 10 games) and Baker Mayfield 159 (15.9 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield, 17.6 to 16.6 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

Start Bo Nix or Baker Mayfield? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 6:26 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield

Start

Bo Nix

QB · DEN · at ARI

Market projects: 17.6; fantasy pts
ARI D vs QB: 22.1; 4th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 83 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.6; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 29 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Bo Nix?

Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 159 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.9 a game over 10 games) and Bo Nix 165 (16.5 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield, 17.6 to 16.6 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Bo Nix at 17.6 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.6, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Baker Mayfield's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Bo Nix at ADP 116 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.6 fantasy points for Bo Nix, with 90 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Bo Nix is 220 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 13 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (7, 8, 7 and 8 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.6 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 215 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (3, 4 and 6 market sources).

That puts Bo Nix 1.0 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Bo Nix and DEN visit ARI on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

ARI allowed 22.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 4th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 247 yards and 2.7 touchdowns a game against ARI, with 0.5 interceptions a game.

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Bo Nix has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Bo Nix is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Bo Nix played 100 percent of DEN snaps, dropped back 202 times and threw an average of 4.9 air yards per attempt.

Bo Nix, Week 3 against LAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 186 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 7 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 4 against SF: 65 of 65 snaps, 25 of 42 passes for 214 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 5 against LAC: 62 of 62 snaps, 16 of 27 passes for 123 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 6 against SEA: 60 of 60 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 107 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 3 yards.

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Bo Nix?
Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 159 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.9 a game over 10 games) and Bo Nix 165 (16.5 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield, 17.6 to 16.6 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Bo Nix for Baker Mayfield?
Not on these numbers alone. Bo Nix projects 165 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 10 games) and Baker Mayfield 159 (15.9 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield, 17.6 to 16.6 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.