Start Baker Mayfield or Tyson Bagent? Week 7

Our Week 7 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Tyson Bagent in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.6 points and Tyson Bagent at 16.4, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Baker Mayfield's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. No player market is posted for Tyson Bagent this week yet, so his 16.4 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (17.0 and 15.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Market coverage on Baker Mayfield is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.6 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 215 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (4, 5 and 8 market sources).

No Week 7 player market is posted for Tyson Bagent yet. His market-based projections were 17.0 and 15.8 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 16.4, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.2 points ahead of Tyson Bagent on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Tyson Bagent and CHI host NE on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

NE allowed 14.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 228 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against NE, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Tyson Bagent is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Through Week 5, Tyson Bagent played 63 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 70 times and threw an average of 6.9 air yards per attempt.

Tyson Bagent, Week 2 against MIN: 10 of 74 snaps, 5 of 8 passes for 54 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Tyson Bagent, Week 4 against NYJ: 93 of 93 snaps, 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 4 yards.

Tyson Bagent, Week 5 against GB: 46 of 69 snaps, 12 of 21 passes for 87 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 17 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Tyson Bagent played 3 games for CHI and scored 2.6 PPR points, 0.9 a game, finishing QB67.

He completed 3 of 4 passes for 47 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and ran 2 times for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 1 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

• Start Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Brock Purdy over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Tyson Bagent over Aaron Rodgers.
• Start Bo Nix over Tyson Bagent.
• Start Brock Purdy over Tyson Bagent.