Should I drop Deshaun Watson for Baker Mayfield?

Not on these numbers alone. Deshaun Watson projects 161 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 10 games) and Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Deshaun Watson, 16.0 to 13.3 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

Start Baker Mayfield or Deshaun Watson? Week 7

Updated Oct 22, 11:01 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Baker Mayfield over Deshaun Watson

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.0; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 37 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Sit

Deshaun Watson

QB · CLE · at TEN

Market projects: 13.3; fantasy pts
TEN D vs QB: 15.6; 12th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 80 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Deshaun Watson?

Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games) and Deshaun Watson 161 (16.1 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Deshaun Watson, 16.0 to 13.3 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Deshaun Watson in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.0 points and Deshaun Watson at 13.3, a gap of 2.7.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 13, 10 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 13.3 fantasy points for Deshaun Watson, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Deshaun Watson is 207 passing yards, 0-1 passing touchdowns, 30 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (13, 14, 7 and 13 market sources).

That puts Baker Mayfield 2.7 points ahead of Deshaun Watson on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Deshaun Watson and CLE visit TEN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TEN allowed 15.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 12th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 235 yards and a touchdown a game against TEN, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Deshaun Watson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Through Week 6, Deshaun Watson played 100 percent of CLE snaps, dropped back 220 times and threw an average of 7.3 air yards per attempt.

Deshaun Watson, Week 3 against CAR: 69 of 70 snaps, 16 of 30 passes for 144 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 9 carries for 47 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 4 against PIT: 64 of 64 snaps, 24 of 33 passes for 268 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 24 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 5 against NYJ: 68 of 68 snaps, 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 40 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 6 against BAL: 62 of 62 snaps, 16 of 26 passes for 164 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 29 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Deshaun Watson?
Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games) and Deshaun Watson 161 (16.1 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Deshaun Watson, 16.0 to 13.3 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Deshaun Watson for Baker Mayfield?
Not on these numbers alone. Deshaun Watson projects 161 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 10 games) and Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Deshaun Watson, 16.0 to 13.3 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

Should I drop Deshaun Watson?