Start Baker Mayfield or Jalon Daniels? Week 7

Updated Oct 23, 12:36 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Latest

Oct 22, 4:48 PM ET: Barring setbacks, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield expected to start vs. Panthers (ESPN)

Start Baker Mayfield over Jalon Daniels

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.0; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 32 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Sit

Jalon Daniels

QB · TB · at CAR

Market projects: 14.9; recent weeks avg
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 65 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 76%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Jalon Daniels for Baker Mayfield?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games), Jalon Daniels 124 (13.8 a game over 9 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Jalon Daniels. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Jalon Daniels in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.0 points and Jalon Daniels at 14.9, a gap of 1.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Jalon Daniels this week yet, so his 14.9 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5 and 6 (15.3 and 14.5); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (11, 13, 9 and 12 market sources).

No Week 7 player market is posted for Jalon Daniels yet. His market-based projections were 15.3 and 14.5 points in Weeks 5 and 6, an average of 14.9, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Baker Mayfield 1.1 points ahead of Jalon Daniels on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Jalon Daniels and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Jalon Daniels is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Through Week 6, Jalon Daniels played 76 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 123 times and threw an average of 6.1 air yards per attempt.

Jalon Daniels, Week 3 against MIN: 4 of 69 snaps, 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 9 yards.

Jalon Daniels, Week 4 against GB: 63 of 64 snaps, 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 8 carries for 55 yards.

Jalon Daniels, Week 5 against DAL: 72 of 72 snaps, 19 of 25 passes for 189 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 25 yards.

Jalon Daniels, Week 6 against PIT: 74 of 74 snaps, 22 of 43 passes for 164 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 39 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Jalon Daniels for Baker Mayfield?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games), Jalon Daniels 124 (13.8 a game over 9 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Jalon Daniels. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Jalon Daniels?
No. Keep Baker Mayfield: he projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games), Jalon Daniels 124 (13.8 a game over 9 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Jalon Daniels. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.