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Start Caleb Williams or C.J. Stroud? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 3:36 AM ET.

Start Caleb Williams over C.J. Stroud

Start

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · vs TB

Market projects
18.0
recent weeks avg
TB D vs QB
14.7
6th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
97%
Through Week 7
Sit

C.J. Stroud

QB · HOU · at LAC

Market projects
17.2
recent weeks avg
LAC D vs QB
15.2
7th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
100%
Through Week 7

Should I drop Caleb Williams for C.J. Stroud?

Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games) and C.J. Stroud 152 (16.9 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over C.J. Stroud.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Caleb Williams over C.J. Stroud in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Caleb Williams at 18.0 points and C.J. Stroud at 17.2, a gap of 0.8. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Caleb Williams this week yet, so his 18.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (18.0, 18.5 and 17.6); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for C.J. Stroud this week yet, so his 17.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6 and 7 (16.7 and 17.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 87 and C.J. Stroud at 185.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for Caleb Williams yet. His market-based projections were 18.0, 18.5 and 17.6 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 18.0, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

No Week 9 player market is posted for C.J. Stroud yet. His market-based projections were 16.7 and 17.8 points in Weeks 6 and 7, an average of 17.2, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Caleb Williams 0.8 points ahead of C.J. Stroud on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Caleb Williams and CHI host TB on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

TB allowed 14.7 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 234 yards and 1.4 touchdowns a game against TB, with 1.1 interceptions a game.

C.J. Stroud and HOU visit LAC on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

LAC allowed 15.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 216 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against LAC, with 0.8 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, C.J. Stroud has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

C.J. Stroud is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 7, Caleb Williams played 97 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 150 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 7 against NE: 69 of 69 snaps, 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 19 yards.

Through Week 7, C.J. Stroud played 100 percent of HOU snaps, dropped back 266 times and threw an average of 9.3 air yards per attempt.

C.J. Stroud, Week 4 against DAL: 55 of 55 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 347 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 5 against TEN: 66 of 66 snaps, 26 of 34 passes for 261 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 7 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 6 against JAX: 63 of 63 snaps, 24 of 34 passes for 312 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 5 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 7 against NYG: 61 of 61 snaps, 17 of 28 passes for 153 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 4 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, C.J. Stroud played 14 games for HOU and scored 216.5 PPR points, 15.5 a game, finishing QB21.

He completed 273 of 423 passes for 3041 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 48 times for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Caleb Williams for C.J. Stroud?

    Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games) and C.J. Stroud 152 (16.9 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over C.J. Stroud.

  • Should I drop C.J. Stroud for Caleb Williams?

    Not on these numbers alone. C.J. Stroud projects 152 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 9 games) and Caleb Williams 148 (18.5 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over C.J. Stroud.

Week 8 on the board

Elsewhere on the board