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Start Baker Mayfield or C.J. Stroud? Week 9

Updated Nov 2, 10:31 PM ET.

Start Baker Mayfield over C.J. Stroud

Mayfield projects lower, 16.0 to 17.2, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 133 for Mayfield, 185 for Stroud.

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CHI

Market projects
16.0
recent weeks avg
CHI D vs QB
19.9
10th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
96%
Through Week 8
Sit

C.J. Stroud

QB · HOU · at LAC

Market projects
17.2
recent weeks avg
LAC D vs QB
15.2
7th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
100%
Through Week 7

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for C.J. Stroud?

Yes, on the rest of the season. C.J. Stroud projects 152 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 9 games), Baker Mayfield 129 (16.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Baker Mayfield over C.J. Stroud. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Baker Mayfield over C.J. Stroud in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.0 points and C.J. Stroud at 17.2, a gap of 1.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Baker Mayfield still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 133 against 185, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Baker Mayfield this week yet, so his 16.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7 and 8 (16.0 and 16.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for C.J. Stroud this week yet, so his 17.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6 and 7 (16.7 and 17.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for C.J. Stroud yet. His market-based projections were 16.7 and 17.8 points in Weeks 6 and 7, an average of 17.2, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

No Week 9 player market is posted for Baker Mayfield yet. His market-based projections were 16.0 and 16.0 points in Weeks 7 and 8, an average of 16.0, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts C.J. Stroud 1.2 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

C.J. Stroud and HOU visit LAC on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

LAC allowed 15.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 216 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against LAC, with 0.8 interceptions a game.

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CHI on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

CHI allowed 19.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 241 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CHI, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

C.J. Stroud is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 7, C.J. Stroud played 100 percent of HOU snaps, dropped back 266 times and threw an average of 9.3 air yards per attempt.

C.J. Stroud, Week 4 against DAL: 55 of 55 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 347 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 5 against TEN: 66 of 66 snaps, 26 of 34 passes for 261 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 7 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 6 against JAX: 63 of 63 snaps, 24 of 34 passes for 312 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 5 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 7 against NYG: 61 of 61 snaps, 17 of 28 passes for 153 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 4 yards.

Through Week 8, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 134 times and threw an average of 8.4 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 8 against ATL: 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 15 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, C.J. Stroud played 14 games for HOU and scored 216.5 PPR points, 15.5 a game, finishing QB21.

He completed 273 of 423 passes for 3041 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 48 times for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Baker Mayfield for C.J. Stroud?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. C.J. Stroud projects 152 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 9 games), Baker Mayfield 129 (16.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Baker Mayfield over C.J. Stroud. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

  • Should I drop C.J. Stroud for Baker Mayfield?

    No. Keep C.J. Stroud: he projects 152 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 9 games), Baker Mayfield 129 (16.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Baker Mayfield over C.J. Stroud.

Week 8 on the board

Elsewhere on the board