Should I drop Trevor Lawrence for Caleb Williams?

Not on these numbers alone. Trevor Lawrence projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games) and Caleb Williams 167 (18.5 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence.

Start Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 2:06 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence

Start

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · at SEA

Market projects: 17.2; fantasy pts
SEA D vs QB: 11.6; 2nd fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 53 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 97%; Through Week 7

Sit

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAX · vs IND

Market projects: 16.7; recent weeks avg
IND D vs QB: 18.1; 12th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 84 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 97%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Caleb Williams for Trevor Lawrence?

Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 167 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 9 games) and Trevor Lawrence 172 (17.2 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Caleb Williams at 17.2 points and Trevor Lawrence at 16.7, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Caleb Williams's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. No player market is posted for Trevor Lawrence this week yet, so his 16.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5 and 6 (16.8 and 16.5); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 87 and Trevor Lawrence at 97. Market coverage on Caleb Williams is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.2 fantasy points for Caleb Williams, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Caleb Williams is 227 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (9, 10 and 8 market sources).

No Week 8 player market is posted for Trevor Lawrence yet. His market-based projections were 16.8 and 16.5 points in Weeks 5 and 6, an average of 16.7, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

That puts Caleb Williams 0.5 points ahead of Trevor Lawrence on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

Caleb Williams and CHI visit SEA on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

SEA allowed 11.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 158 yards and 1.1 touchdowns a game against SEA, with 1.1 interceptions a game.

Trevor Lawrence and JAX host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 18.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 12th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 227 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against IND, with 0.3 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Trevor Lawrence has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

Trevor Lawrence is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Caleb Williams played 97 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 150 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 7 against NE: 69 of 69 snaps, 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 19 yards.

Through Week 6, Trevor Lawrence played 97 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 200 times and threw an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 3 against NE: 59 of 62 snaps, 19 of 28 passes for 182 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 25 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 4 against CIN: 61 of 61 snaps, 18 of 23 passes for 227 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 5 against PHI: 72 of 72 snaps, 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 25 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 6 against HOU: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Caleb Williams for Trevor Lawrence?
Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 167 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 9 games) and Trevor Lawrence 172 (17.2 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence.
Should I drop Trevor Lawrence for Caleb Williams?
Not on these numbers alone. Trevor Lawrence projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games) and Caleb Williams 167 (18.5 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence.