Should I drop Jake Ferguson for Darren Waller?

Not on these numbers alone. Jake Ferguson projects 70 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (7.8 a game over 9 games) and Darren Waller 67 (6.7 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Jake Ferguson over Darren Waller.

Start Jake Ferguson or Darren Waller? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 7:21 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Jake Ferguson over Darren Waller

Start

Jake Ferguson

TE · DAL · vs ARI

Market projects: 6.8; recent weeks avg
ARI D vs TE: 16.6; 7th most to TEs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 83 of 100 at TE
Snap share: 66%; Through Week 7
Target share: 9%; Through Week 7

Sit

Darren Waller

TE · CAR · at GB

Market projects: 5.9; fantasy pts
GB D vs TE: 9.0; 2nd fewest to TEs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 39 of 100 at TE
Snap share: 46%; Through Week 7
Target share: 11%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Darren Waller for Jake Ferguson?

Not on these numbers alone. Darren Waller projects 67 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (6.7 a game over 10 games) and Jake Ferguson 70 (7.8 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Jake Ferguson over Darren Waller.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Jake Ferguson over Darren Waller in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Jake Ferguson at 6.8 points and Darren Waller at 5.9, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Jake Ferguson this week yet, so his 6.8 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 (6.9, 7.5 and 6.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 8 player market is posted for Jake Ferguson yet. His market-based projections were 6.9, 7.6 and 6.1 points in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, an average of 6.8, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

Player markets imply 5.9 fantasy points for Darren Waller, with 100 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

The market-based projection for Darren Waller is 20 receiving yards, 2-3 receptions and 0.2 touchdowns (12, 13 and 13 market sources).

That puts Jake Ferguson 1.0 points ahead of Darren Waller on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

Jake Ferguson and DAL host ARI on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ARI allowed 16.6 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 7 games, the 7th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 60 yards and 0.7 touchdowns a game against ARI.

Darren Waller and CAR visit GB on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

GB allowed 9.0 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 7 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 33 yards and 0.3 touchdowns a game against GB.

By points allowed to the position, Jake Ferguson has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Jake Ferguson is not on the injury report.

Darren Waller is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Jake Ferguson played 66 percent of DAL snaps, drew 9 percent of the targets, earned 6 percent of the air yards and had 6 percent of the red zone chances.

Jake Ferguson, Week 4 against HOU: 55 of 78 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 11 yards.

Jake Ferguson, Week 5 against TB: 50 of 60 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards.

Jake Ferguson, Week 6 against GB: 42 of 78 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 13 yards.

Jake Ferguson, Week 7 against PHI: 38 of 68 snaps, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Through Week 7, Darren Waller played 46 percent of CAR snaps, drew 11 percent of the targets, earned 11 percent of the air yards and had 7 percent of the red zone chances.

Darren Waller, Week 3 against CLE: 39 of 77 snaps, 8 targets and 5 catches for 51 yards.

Darren Waller, Week 4 against DET: 40 of 75 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 36 yards.

Darren Waller, Week 6 against PHI: 36 of 79 snaps, 2 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Darren Waller, Week 7 against TB: 25 of 56 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 50 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Jake Ferguson played 17 games for DAL and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets and 293 air yards.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Darren Waller played 9 games for MIA and scored 88.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing TE33.

He caught 24 of 34 targets for 283 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 7 red zone targets and 210 air yards.

He was on the field for 45 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Darren Waller for Jake Ferguson?
Not on these numbers alone. Darren Waller projects 67 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (6.7 a game over 10 games) and Jake Ferguson 70 (7.8 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Jake Ferguson over Darren Waller.
Should I drop Jake Ferguson for Darren Waller?
Not on these numbers alone. Jake Ferguson projects 70 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (7.8 a game over 9 games) and Darren Waller 67 (6.7 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Jake Ferguson over Darren Waller.

Should I drop Darren Waller?Should I drop Jake Ferguson?