Start Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 6:21 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Baker Mayfield over Kyler Murray

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.7; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 29 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Sit

Kyler Murray

QB · MIN · vs IND

Market projects: 16.5; fantasy pts
IND D vs QB: 18.8; 11th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 77 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 80%; Through Week 5

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Kyler Murray?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Kyler Murray projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Baker Mayfield 159 (15.9 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Kyler Murray, 16.7 to 16.5 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Kyler Murray in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.7 points and Kyler Murray at 16.5, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Baker Mayfield at ADP 133 and Kyler Murray at 139. Market coverage on Baker Mayfield is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.7 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 touchdowns (4 and 5 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.5 fantasy points for Kyler Murray, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Kyler Murray is 204 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (11, 12 and 10 market sources).

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.2 points ahead of Kyler Murray on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Kyler Murray and MIN host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 18.8 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 11th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 240 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game against IND, with 0.3 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Kyler Murray has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Kyler Murray is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Through Week 5, Kyler Murray played 80 percent of MIN snaps, dropped back 122 times and threw an average of 6.4 air yards per attempt.

Kyler Murray, Week 1 against GB: 11 of 65 snaps, 3 of 5 passes for 18 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 3 against TB: 59 of 59 snaps, 15 of 29 passes for 168 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 4 against MIA: 78 of 78 snaps, 27 of 37 passes for 247 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 21 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 5 against NO: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 29 passes for 229 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 54 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Kyler Murray played 5 games for ARI and scored 80.8 PPR points, 16.2 a game, finishing QB38.

He completed 110 of 161 passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Kyler Murray?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Kyler Murray projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Baker Mayfield 159 (15.9 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Kyler Murray, 16.7 to 16.5 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Kyler Murray for Baker Mayfield?
No. Keep Kyler Murray: he projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Baker Mayfield 159 (15.9 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Kyler Murray, 16.7 to 16.5 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.